Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Monday, December 3, 2012


WHAT HAPPENED
Wisconsin! As I said last week, I liked the Badgers’ chances. I have to give credit to HC Brett Bielema. No team in the Big Ten has improved as much over the course of the season as the Badgers have. At the beginning of the season, the offensive line was way below the standards that have been established in Madison. But Saturday’s victory over Nebraska was reminiscent of recent Badger teams as they steamrolled the Huskers on the ground.
Strange ending to a fun season. A Big Ten champion that finished third in its division.
 

KIS RANKINGS 

The opponents on Notre Dame’s schedule won enough games to improve the Irish’s OPP% and move them back into first place in this week’s rankings (see the tab at the top of this page). Florida fell to second place as their opponents (Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida St, and Georgia) won two games and lost one. Notre Dame’s opponents (Stanford, Oklahoma, and Pitt) all won. Stanford, K-State, Alabama, and Nebraska were the only teams from last week’s top ten to play a game over the weekend. The rest of the teams’ TOTAL was changed only as a result of an updated OPP%. Alabama jumped from eighth to fourth as a result of their SEC Championship game victory over Georgia. Nebraska fell out of the top ten due to their loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Oklahoma took their place. Army and Navy play this Saturday and after that only bowl games are left to determine the final results of the KIS Rankings.
I’ve listed below the KIS rankings for the Big Ten teams that I was tracking. Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, and Indiana are not on the list as I didn’t see them as having a chance to be a top ten team at any point during the season. Iowa is on the list since I figured them to have potential at the beginning of the year. How the Hawkeyes compare to the four teams I didn’t track, of course, is unknown. 

KIS rank
TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
5
Ohio State
1.58
1.00
0.50
0.08
12
0
13
Nebraska
1.47
0.75
0.60
0.11
9
3
21
Michigan
1.37
0.67
0.59
0.11
8
4
27
Northwestern
1.31
0.73
0.47
0.11
8
3
30
Penn State
1.29
0.67
0.52
0.10
8
4
31
Wisconsin
1.28
0.58
0.58
0.11
7
5
39
Michigan State
1.22
0.50
0.62
0.10
6
6
53
Iowa
0.94
0.27
0.57
0.10
3
8

 

 

 

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