Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, September 3, 2014

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS PREDICTIONS WEEK 2


Only one game to look at this week and it’s a good one. I’d like to have more to go on than just one week of play against sub-par competition, but gotta pull the trigger at some point, right?
My current record: 0-0

CRYSTAL BALL
WEEK OF 9-6-2014 

NOTRE DAME
28
MICHIGAN
24

As I pointed out in previous posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential, play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach (health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.  Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.)


1
2
3
Final
NOTRE DAME
7
7
21
28
MICHIGAN
3
10
13
24

It is with a certain amount of trepidation that I make this prediction. One game against a soft opponent doesn’t give me much of a read on Michigan.  And a new OC, Doug Nussmeier, throws a bit of a monkey wrench into things as well. Notre Dame’s week one opponent, Rice, is no powerhouse either, but certainly more of a challenge than App St. So, as is not uncommon in week two, I’ll still have to use a certain amount of preseason speculation and to some degree, last season’s results. I don’t see much separation between these teams but I did like what I saw from Notre Dame QB Everett Golson last Saturday. He could be the difference in this game. Notre Dame appears to be improved on defense and they’ll have to be as Michigan QB Devin Gardner appears to be on track. But the game is being played at Notre Dame and, Nussmeier aside, I’ll take Notre Dame HC Brian Kelly’s game day prowess over Michigan HC Brady Hoke’s any day of the week, so I’m giving the slight edge to the Irish.
As of the date of this post, the line sits at Notre Dame by 3 1/2 so there is virtually no chance that this game will qualify as a play.


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