Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS PREDICTIONS WEEK 3


Two games to look at this week. One Notre Dame game against a Big Ten opponent and one rare September conference game. Both will count in the standings.
My current record: 0-0 

CRYSTAL BALL
WEEK OF 9-13-2014 

PENN ST
27
RUTGERS
17
NOTRE DAME
37
PURDUE
10

 As I pointed out in previous posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential, play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach (health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.  Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.) 


1
2
3
Final
RUTGERS
3
10
10
17
PENN ST
3
17
24
27

Penn St. is okay. Not great, though. Hard to tell what QB Christian Hackenberg’s gonna do. The kid has a cannon that can torch a defense with one accurate throw, but he’s been hit and miss with his accuracy and has a tendency to force the ball into tight coverage, thus giving up interceptions. Rutgers has been a surprise so far; much better than I anticipated. Still, I think they’re a level below Penn St. This is by no means a slam-dunk for Penn St., especially when you consider that it’s a night-time road game against a 2-0 program that’s eager to make a splash in the Big Ten. Since they’re new to the conference, I don’t know much about the Rutgers program. But I gotta think that whatever type of fan base they may have, it will be out in full force for this game. And the Nittany Lions didn’t exactly mop the floor with non-power conference Akron last Saturday. And despite how dangerous Hackenberg is, Penn St. isn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard. I see Penn St., similar to the Akron game, establishing a somewhat comfortable lead early -  one that gives you the feeling it will never be relinquished - but they allow Rutgers to hang around just enough to have to keep the starters in until the finish.
As of the date of this post, the line sits at Penn St. by 3.5, so it is very possible that this game could qualify as a play.


1
2
3
Final
NOTRE DAME
7
9
23
37
PURDUE
3
10
10
10

So far, I’m impressed with Notre Dame. QB Everett Golson is playing with a purpose and the Irish have three hard running backs in the rotation and receivers that go after the ball. The defense appears to be loaded with fast, aggressive and sure tacklers, most notable LB Jaylon Smith. Unless Michigan is a complete pushover, which I don’t believe they are, this looks like it could be a special year for Notre Dame. That being said, this is the perfect spot for an Irish letdown. The newness of the season has worn off and all week long they’ll be basking in the glory of a big victory over Michigan as the press and their fans will be telling them how great they are.  College kids – smart enough to see that Purdue is no match, but too young and inexperienced to realize that upsets more improbable than a Purdue victory this Saturday have occurred in the past.
Purdue is coming off a home loss to Central Michigan, a team that’s not even considered a contender in the MAC. Purdue, like Illinois, is a poorly coached train-wreck. Many inadequacies are expected when a new coach takes over, but things like excessive penalties and issues with QB-Center exchanges are the type of things that coaches who are eventually going to be successful shore up ASAP. After fourteen games under the new regime, this still hasn’t happened. I expect second year starter QB Danny Etling, who played poorly, to be on the bench while his backup, Austin Appleby, gets the start. Appleby’s a confident kid who’s hungry to win the starting job (I remember him in a preseason interview after he learned he didn’t win the competition to be the starter). And most all teams, particularly the QB, seem to play their best game against Notre Dame. If Notre Dame brings their “A” game I think they win by a huge margin. But I think they’ll be flat and actually trail at halftime before they eventually impose their superiority on a disorganized and insecure Purdue team.
As of the date of this post, the line sits at Notre Dame by 28 so there is virtually no chance that this game will qualify as a play.



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