Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS WHAT HAPPENED WEEK 4


WHAT HAPPENED

The Big Ten went 12-1 in the final weekend of strictly non-conference play. Iowa, Indiana and Michigan surprised most fans. Many had written Iowa off prior to the Hawkeyes winning at Pitt. No one expected Indiana to defeat a top twenty- five opponent. And Michigan, well, what can be said? Things just keep getting worse for the Wolverines. Notre Dame was off and there were no conference games so I had no games to handicap last week. That won’t happen again for the rest of the season as each week will produce a minimum of five games to look at.
My Record:  0-0



 ATS
FTC DOLLARS
In this section I track the results of my Crystal Ball selections that qualify as “plays” ATS (any prediction that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve also included the results of some unsuspecting prognosticators that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC” dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section, please refer to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.

I’m posting the standings again despite the fact that there were no games predicted last Saturday. In fact, only three games have been predicted thus far as we head into the intended portion of this contest; conference play. And with only three games predicted, half of the contestants, including myself, have yet to predict a game that qualifies as a play, which is not unusual. For me it varies from season to season, but generally only about 20 to 40 percent of games predicted will qualify as a play.

ATS  PLAY STANDINGS
LAST SATURDAY
TOTAL
FTC $
W
L
T
W
L
T
FROM THE COUCH
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
KEVIN RYAN (247sports)
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
BRADEN GALL (athlon)
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
STEVEN LASSAN (athlon)
0
0
0
0
0
0
$0
MITCH LIGHT (athlon)
0
0
0
1
1
0
-$5
BRENT YARINA (btn)
0
0
0
0
1
0
-$55
TOM DEINHART (btn)
0
0
0
0
1
0
-$55
STATRAT (pubhole)
0
0
0
0
1
0
-$55
DAVID FOX (athlon)
0
0
0
0
2
0
-$110






SEASON STATS 


SPREAD RECORD
W
L
STRAIGHT UP
W
L
FROM THE COUCH
2
1
FROM THE COUCH
3
0
SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)
2
1
KEVIN RYAN (247sports)
3
0
BRADEN GALL (athlon)
2
1
BRADEN GALL (athlon)
3
0
MITCH LIGHT (athlon)
2
1
STEVEN LASSAN (athlon)
3
0
STATRAT (pubhole)
1
2
STATRAT (pubhole)
2
1
TOM DEINHART (btn)
1
2
SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)
2
1
BRENT YARINA (btn)
1
2
DAVID FOX (athlon)
2
1
STEVEN LASSAN (athlon)
1
2
MITCH LIGHT (athlon)
2
1
KEVIN RYAN (247sports)
0
3
TOM DEINHART (btn)
1
2
DAVID FOX (athlon)
0
3
BRENT YARINA (btn)
1
2
WITHIN 7
W
L
CLOSEST
W
L
MITCH LIGHT (athlon)
2
1
FROM THE COUCH
2
1
FROM THE COUCH
1
2
BRADEN GALL (athlon)
2
1
KEVIN RYAN (247sports)
1
2
MITCH LIGHT (athlon)
2
1
STATRAT (pubhole)
1
2
STATRAT (pubhole)
1
2
TOM DEINHART (btn)
1
2
SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)
1
2
BRENT YARINA (btn)
1
2
STEVEN LASSAN (athlon)
1
2
SEAN MERRIMAN (btn)
1
2
KEVIN RYAN (247sports)
0
3
BRADEN GALL (athlon)
1
2
TOM DEINHART (btn)
0
3
STEVEN LASSAN (athlon)
1
2
BRENT YARINA (btn)
0
3
DAVID FOX (athlon)
0
3
DAVID FOX (athlon)
0
3


SPREAD RECORD-Simply displays the ATS record.
STRAIGHT UP- The outright winner, disregarding the spread.
WITHIN 7-This category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points of the final score. Why does this matter? Because one can never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.
CLOSEST - It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the closest category because the spread (7-6=1) was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into overtime will be calculated as a tie for the “closest” and “within 7” category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.





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