Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS PREDICTIONS WEEK 2


Only one game to look at this week. I’d like to have more to go on than just one week of play, but it’s time to start pulling the trigger so here we go.
My current record (0-0)

CRYSTAL BALL
WEEK OF 9-12-2015

NOTRE DAME
38
VIRGINIA
10

As I pointed out in previous posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential, play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach (health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.  Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.)


1
2
3
Final
VIRGINIA
0
3
10
10
NOTRE DAME
14
21
28
38

Notre Dame looked good in just about every facet. Texas looked bad, though. So after only one game I’m not sure if ND looked good because Texas is bad or if Texas looked bad because ND is good. I’m going with a lot of both here. ND’s new starting QB Malik Zaire was “off the charts” good last Saturday. But he did have about a half an hour to throw the ball so any QB could look good under those circumstances. Again, strong Irish O-line or weak Texas pass rush? ND lost starting RB Tarean Folston for the season but his replacement, C.J. Prosise, looked every bit as good as I remember Folston from last season. Given the fact that I knew I was gonna predict this game this week, I wish I’d have payed closer attention to Virginia’s game against UCLA. But I had the Cavaliers relegated to the third TV as the Nebraska-BYU and Penn St.-Temple games got top billing. But from what I did see, combined with the recaps and stats, I don’t notice anything impressive about Virginia. As always in week two, I’d like to have more information, but man, ND looked good. I like the Irish to roll in this one.
As of the date of this post, the line sits at Notre Dame by 12 1/2, so this game will qualify as a play.


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