Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

One Notre Dame game to look at this week.
My current record: 0-1


CRYSTAL BALL
WEEK OF 9-26-2015

NOTRE DAME
45
UMASS
17

As I pointed out in previous posts, my method is to make my predictions on Sunday - before I look at the spreads - to keep from being influenced subconsciously. Any prediction that varies from the game time spread by seven or more points is considered a “play”. 50 FTC dollars will be wagered on each “play”. That’s the system. Seven points or more differential, play it; less than seven, back off. I do make one disclaimer: If a report comes out during the week (after Sunday) that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I might not have known about) or the coach (health issues, scandal, etc.), I won’t count the game.  Occasionally I might predict a tie, which is the equivalent of a “pick em”. (For a more detailed description of what constitutes a “play”, see the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.)

1
2
3
Final
NOTRE DAME
14
24
38
45
UMASS
3
3
10
17


UMass isn’t near as bad as they were a few seasons ago when they first made the jump in class to become an FBS program. But they’re still not to the point where they’re a threat to the Irish. The threat to the Irish is the Irish. This is a classic spot for a letdown – ND is coming off of a nice win against a ranked Georgia Tech team and has a big showdown after this game against a ranked opponent in Clemson. So I’ve accounted for some turnovers and stupid penalties from Notre Dame, but I still come up with an easy victory for the Irish. I’d be surprised if UMass has much success offensively, although opposing QB’s always seem to bring their best against Notre Dame. I expect ND QB DeShone Kizer to throw at least one interception, but I also expect the Irish defense to force at least two turnovers. These mismatches are always tricky, especially in a letdown situation like this. But ND has a pretty good O-Line this season and letdown or not, I think the Irish wear down UMass in the second half and eventually break off some touchdowns on the ground.
As of the date of this post, the line sits at Notre Dame by 29, so there is virtually no chance that this prediction will qualify as a play.


ATS
FTC DOLLARS
In this section I track the results of my Crystal Ball selections that qualify as “plays” ATS (any prediction that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve also included the results of some unsuspecting prognosticators (conference games only) that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC” dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section, please refer to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post. 

Nothing to compare yet, but things get started after this week as conference play begins on October 3.


NOTRE DAME
I predict Notre Dame games along with the Big Ten conference games. Other than the occasions when Notre Dame plays a Big Ten team, these predictions aren’t included in the standings/comparisons as my competition doesn’t make predictions for Notre Dame vs non-Big Ten conference games. Listed below is my stats for Notre Dame games that aren’t included in the standings. 

PLAYS
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
WITHIN 7
STRAIGHT UP
W
L
T
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
0
1
0
0
2
0
2
0
2
1
1


SPREAD RECORD-Simply displays the ATS record.
STRAIGHT UP- The outright winner, disregarding the spread.
WITHIN 7-This category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points of the final score differential. Why does this matter? Because one can never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.
CLOSEST - It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate as the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the closest category because the spread (7-6=1) was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).

Any games that go into overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7” category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.


For a more user friendly comment section, click herejoetopic
For this season’s archives by title, click hereArchive by Title


No comments:

Post a Comment