Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

Monday, September 28, 2015

BIG TEN FOOTBALL ATS WHAT HAPPENED WEEK 4


WHAT HAPPENED

The Big Ten went 12-2 in the last week of the nonconference portion of the season. It looks like big brother has woke up from his nap and is poised to take a shot at reclaiming the state of Michigan. Suddenly Michigan’s loss to Utah doesn’t look so bad and Michigan St.’s victory over Oregon doesn’t look so good. Five of last Saturday’s Big Ten games were against MAC teams. The Big Ten won four of ‘em, but the MAC made a pretty good showing for themselves, which speaks to the parity of college football these days. I predicted one game last Saturday, Notre Dame – UMass, which didn’t qualify as a play.
My current record: 0-1


THE NON-PLAYS
Notre Dame 62  UMass 27   (Notre Dame -29 1/2)
I predicted Notre Dame to win, 45-17. My prediction was close enough on the spread, but the final score for both teams came in a little higher than I anticipated. Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer threw the interception I called for but the Irish defense forced only one of the two turnovers I predicted (Week 4 Predictions). As I said in my write-up, UMass is not as bad as they used to be, and they actually played the Irish pretty close in the first half. But they were bad enough for Notre Dame to have this game under control by midway through the third quarter. I predicted Notre Dame to wear down the Minute Men in the second half, which they did. But I didn’t necessarily know it would be the second string that would do the wearing down. This game was over long before the final seconds ticked off as the Irish rolled against the weakest opponent they’ve scheduled for as long as I can remember.



ATS
FTC DOLLARS
In this section I track the results of my Crystal Ball selections that qualify as “plays” ATS (any prediction that differs from the closing line by seven or more points). I’ve also included the results of some unsuspecting prognosticators that I found on line. The standings are based on how many “FTC” dollars are won. For a more detailed explanation of this section, please refer to the “FTC $ Q&A” tab at the top of this post.

Time to get things started in this segment of my posts as conference play begins this Saturday. I’ve got a few more casualties to report among my competition, though. The boys at Athlon apparently are gonna start phoning in their picks by just picking a winner as opposed to offering a score, which makes them useless to me for this contest. So it’s down to just me and the experts at BTN.


NOTRE DAME
I predict Notre Dame games along with the Big Ten conference games. Other than the occasions when Notre Dame plays a Big Ten team, these predictions aren’t included in the standings/comparisons as my competition doesn’t make predictions for Notre Dame vs non-Big Ten conference games. Listed below is my stats for Notre Dame games that aren’t included in the standings.

PLAYS
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
WITHIN 7
STRAIGHT UP
W
L
T
W
L
W
L
W
L
W
L
0
1
0
0
3
0
3
1
2
2
1

SPREAD RECORD-Simply displays the ATS record.
STRAIGHT UP- The outright winner, disregarding the spread.
WITHIN 7-This category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points of the final score differential. Why does this matter? Because one can never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.
CLOSEST - It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate as the oddsmakers. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the closest category because the spread (7-6=1) was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).
Any games that go into overtime will be considered a tie when calculating the “closest” and “within 7” category. The actual score will be used, however, for the other two categories.



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