BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 6

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are six games to look at this week.

My current record: 0-4

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
IOWA	14	17	24	33
ILLINOIS	0	3	3	10

Illinois was exposed last Friday against Nebraska as a team that is lacking the overall talent to keep up with most of the Big Ten teams, particularly on the O-line. I think they play hard, and for the most part, are well coached. And that goes a long way, but that will take you only so far against Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. Iowa needs a win bad, so I figure the Hawkeyes to jump on the Illini early and open up a comfortable lead. Iowa has a history of playing down to its competition, and that could happen in this game. But even if they aren’t fully inspired, I still expect some big plays from RB Akrum Wadley, and also expect the defense will be too much for the Illini to handle.

As of now, Iowa is favored by 17 points. If the line should fall to 16 points or less, I’ll be taking Iowa. If not, I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NORTHWEST'RN	7	10	17	20
PENN ST	3	13	20	30

I expect Northwestern to make a game of this. This will be Penn St.’s toughest test so far, and while I think they’ll win, I don’t think it will be as easy as most might think. Nor as easy as some of the Penn St. players might think. They’ve been hearing nothing but accolades for the past few months, so there may be a bit of overconfidence, especially when they look at Northwestern’s win-loss record. The game is at Northwestern, which isn’t the most daunting venue, but still, the Wildcats are at home and have some good players on the roster. QB Clayton Thorson has been looking good, but again, I don’t trust him in the clutch (see last week’s head scratching safety). I do like Penn St. QB Trace McSorley in the clutch, and RB Saquon Barkley is always a threat to break one, so I like Penn St. to win this one in the fourth quarter.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 13.5 points. I’d need 17 points or more to take Northwestern, so I’ll most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
OHIO ST	10	27	33	40
MARYLAND	0	14	21	27

Maryland has some big play athletes on offense. Ohio St. has several big play athletes every season. I expect to see the Buckeyes take and maintain control, but I also expect Maryland to be pesky enough to prevent an all-out blowout. Certainly last season’s 62-3 drubbing should provide some inspiration. Third string QB Max Bortenschlager made his first start and played well in last Saturday’s impressive road win at Minnesota. Ohio Stadium will be a bit more intimidating, most likely for all of the Maryland players. Still, I expect some of the aforementioned big play athletes on Maryland's offense to make some big plays whenever Ohio St. builds a comfortable two to three score lead and consequently loses some intensity. But I also think that the Ohio St. defense will make stops whenever Maryland gets too close for comfort.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 31 points, which surprises me a bit. But the Buckeyes do tend to be overrated not by just John Q. Public, but by the experts as well (see the Buckeyes invite to the playoffs despite not winning their own conference). I am a bit concerned about HC Urban Meyer’s penchant for running up the score, but I think Maryland is an improved team this season. I’ll be taking Maryland.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN	0	10	17	24
MICHIGAN ST	3	6	12	12

I expect the usual slug-fest between these rivals. Neither team has been overly impressive on the offensive side of the ball. It doesn’t matter to me which QB starts for Michigan (John O’Korn or Wilton Speight)… given Speight’s shaky play this season, I consider them about equal right now. I think Michigan has the better team, and maybe the best defense in the conference, and they’re playing at home. Michigan St. turned in a nice win last Saturday, the defense played well, and the QB ain’t too bad. So I figure the Spartans to hang tuff, but I like Michigan to get the win here in a low scoring battle.

As of now, Michigan is favored by 10.5 points, which is about how I see it, so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
PURDUE	7	13	20	27
MINNESOTA	7	7	14	21

Good matchup here. Both teams have new, young, upstart coaches who’ve instilled some enthusiasm into their respective programs. Minnesota’s loss at home last Saturday indicates they aren’t quite there yet, but the opponent was certainly worthy, so I can’t be too hard on the Gophers. I’ve been touting Purdue since before the season began as a team that will show remarkable improvement, and so far, they haven’t let me down. Their two losses came at the hands of nationally ranked teams, and they played admirably in both. Minnesota QB Conor Rhoda isn’t bad, but I like Purdue QB David Blough better (Purdue HC Jeff Brohm has been splitting Blough’s playing time with Elijah Sindelar, who is good, but not as good as Blough in my opinion). I also give a bit of an edge to Brohm in the coaching department. The game is at Purdue, so there’s another edge. I still think this game will be close, though, as the overall talent between the teams is about equal and the aforementioned edges are small.

As of now, Purdue is favored by 4 points, which is pretty close to how I see it, so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NEBRASKA	0	3	10	13
WISCONSIN	10	17	31	38

I know the game is at Lincoln, I know Wisconsin struggled in the first half last Saturday, I know Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook can’t throw the deep ball very well, and I know Wisconsin isn’t the type of team to blow anybody out. But Nebraska has shown me nothing to make me think this game will be close. I consider Wisconsin as a team that could win the conference. Paul Chryst is a good HC and an excellent play caller, the defense has been playing very well, and aside from the deep ball, Hornibrook has been very efficient. I can’t lay the same kind of praise on Nebraska. Sure, they’ve won their last two, but the opponents were lower tier. And QB Tanner Lee has been struggling as he has a penchant for throwing the ball up for grabs when pressured. I expect him to be pressured in this game. The oddsmakers usually know what they’re doing, and they’re calling for this game to be much closer than what I’m projecting, but I just don’t see it.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 11 points, so I’ll definitely be taking Wisconsin.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 5

What Happened Week 4