I’ll be making predictions on
all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners
vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week, three
of which could be plays.
My current record: 4-8
As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas,
I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will
essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I
get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I
submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the
current line.
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1
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2
|
3
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Final
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|
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PENN ST
|
14
|
21
|
28
|
35
|
|
RUTGERS
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
17
|
Rutgers is only one game
behind Penn St. in the conference standings. Who would have thought that could
be said this late in the season? I think they’ll be two games behind after
Saturday, but still, I think it’s fair to say that Rutgers has already exceeded
expectations this season, save the ugly loss to Eastern Michigan in week two. I
won’t discount Michigan St. as a legitimate contender, but I do think that part
of Penn St.’s loss to the Spartans last Saturday was the result of letdown after
the emotional loss to Ohio St. the week before. I figure the Nittany Lions will
be eager to right the ship and will jump out to an early lead. But I also think
there may still be a bit of a hangover from the last two weeks, as all hopes of
a conference championship or a playoff berth are now gone. So I figure Penn St.
to lose interest in the second half and not win quite as big as most would
expect against a Rutgers team who is improved from as little as only a month
ago.
As of now, Penn
St. is favored by 31 points, so I’ll be taking Rutgers and the points.
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1
|
2
|
3
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Final
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|
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ILLINOIS
|
0
|
10
|
20
|
23
|
|
INDIANA
|
10
|
17
|
24
|
34
|
Both teams are looking for
their first conference win. I’m not going to say that either team is great by
any stretch, but as far as “bottom of the conference” goes, these teams are the
strongest the Big Ten has had in years. Indiana has played a tough schedule so
far, with Maryland being their only game that would be considered a good chance
for a win. And the Hoosiers lost that one, so the jury is still out on whether
this team has discovered how to close out a game. Illinois hasn’t played a
schedule quite as tough, and has played well at times, but really haven’t been
all that close to winning any of their games. All signs point to Indiana in
this one.
As of now, Indiana
is favored by 7.5 points, which is pretty close to how I see it, so I’ll most
likely be passing on this one.
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1
|
2
|
3
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Final
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|
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WISCONSIN
|
7
|
14
|
21
|
27
|
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IOWA
|
7
|
10
|
17
|
20
|
Iowa showed once again how
tough it is to win a big game at Kinnick Stadium last Saturday. Through the
years Camp Randall has proven to be equally as tough, if not tougher. Iowa is
on the rise, obviously, due in large part to the growth of QB Nate Stanley.
Wisconsin seems to be on cruise control, if not slightly regressing. The
schedule hasn’t been all that challenging, and perhaps not very inspiring, so
that may be part of the reason. And the question has been lingering as to
whether QB Alex Hornibrook can consistently move the ball through the air if or
when the Badgers face a team talented enough to load up the box and stop the
run. Hornibrook shows signs of being capable; in fact he’s been very good with
the intermediate routes. But there are also times when he seems to struggle
with the deeper routes. Iowa will probably put him to the test, but I’m not
sure the Hawkeyes are that team that can consistently stop the Wisconsin
running game. That O-Line can wear a defense down and RB Jonathan Taylor is a
helluva back.
As of now, Wisconsin
is favored by 11.5 points. I would need at least 14 points to take Iowa, which
doesn’t seem likely, so I’ll probably be passing on this one.
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1
|
2
|
3
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Final
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|
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MARYLAND
|
0
|
7
|
10
|
10
|
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MICHIGAN
|
7
|
21
|
21
|
28
|
I’m going to go with the
assumption that Maryland QB Max Bortenschlager will play, but will be hampered a
bit with the injury he suffered last Saturday. Nonetheless, I don’t see
Maryland winning this one. Michigan’s defense will be too much. But the
Michigan offense is still a work in progress, although help appears to be on
the way with the insertion of Brandon Peters at QB. Peters is still very
inexperienced and very much unproven, though. With that, and the fact the game
is at Maryland, I’m not calling for any kind of blowout here.
As of now,
Michigan is favored by 17 points, which is pretty close to how I see it, so I’ll
most likely be passing on this one.
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1
|
2
|
3
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Final
|
|
|
OHIO ST
|
0
|
7
|
14
|
21
|
|
MICHIGAN ST
|
3
|
10
|
13
|
19
|
I’m a little surprised at the
way the odds makers are seeing this one. I understand that the game is at Ohio
St., and I also understand that last Saturday’s alarming blowout loss at Iowa
can be partially attributed to a letdown from the previous Saturday’s huge win
over Penn St., but still, that was a beat down. And let’s not overlook the fact
that Michigan St. also beat Penn St. And Iowa. It takes a lot for people to
downgrade Ohio St. – the perception is that they are always great, no matter
the circumstances (last season’s playoff berth comes to mind). And no love for
Michigan St. They’re not quite as flashy, or high profile. It was only two seasons ago that Michigan St. went into Columbus and knocked off the favored Buckeyes
with a backup QB. And last season, despite being in the midst of a dismal 3-9 campaign,
the Spartans gave the playoff bound Buckeyes all they could handle in a one
point loss. HC Mark Dantonio has got their number. I don’t know that the
Spartans will win, but they sure could. I’m looking for a much closer game than
Vegas is.
As of now, Ohio
St. is favored by 17.5 points, so I’ll be taking Michigan St. and the points.
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1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
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MINNESOTA
|
7
|
10
|
17
|
24
|
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NEBRASKA
|
7
|
17
|
23
|
26
|
I’m a bit torn on this one. I
made the decision early in the season that Nebraska is horrible, but I’ll be
darned if they haven’t looked a lot better since their bye week. And I’m
starting to wonder about Minnesota. The new coach brings a lot of enthusiasm,
gimmicks, and a certain amount of quirkiness that can only go so far if it
doesn’t translate into wins. Players buy into that kind of stuff early on, but
can start to be turned off by it late in a losing season. And I’m also not
seeing much schematically on game day from the Gophers. I’m not a big fan of
Nebraska HC Mike Riley, but I think he will be the better “game day” coach on
Saturday. I can’t believe I’m calling for a Nebraska win.
As of now, Minnesota
is favored by 2.5 points. I would need at least 5 points to take Nebraska, so I’ll
have to see if it moves that far by Saturday morning. It probably won’t, which
is a good thing. I wouldn’t feel all that comfortable taking either one of
these teams.
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1
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2
|
3
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Final
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|
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NORTHWEST'RN
|
0
|
10
|
10
|
13
|
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PURDUE
|
3
|
6
|
13
|
16
|
Ok, here’s my upset special. I
was afraid to use my “upset instinct” last Saturday and it cost me, so I’m
going out on a limb here. Purdue hit a rough spot in the season and struggled
to find the end zone there for a while. They re-inserted David Blough at QB and
seemed to be back to good, but Blough is now out for the season with an injury.
But Elijah Sindelar certainly obtained enough experience this season, and is
also certainly capable. So not a huge drop off there. Northwestern, on the
other hand, has been on a roll. After a slow start, the Wildcats have won four
straight, including a nice win over Michigan St. Which means it’s about time
for Northwestern to go in the tank, in typical Northwestern fashion. I’ve had
my eye on Purdue all season, and like the direction the program is moving in.
They need a win they can be especially proud of and I think they’ll get it here.
Apparently my
prediction isn’t as big of an upset as I thought because as of now, Northwestern
is favored by only 4.5 points. I need at least 4 points to take Purdue, so if
this number holds up or gets bigger by Saturday, I’ll be taking Purdue.
My method is to begin making
my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still
fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done
handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a
particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I
consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is
less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out
during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game) that there is an issue involving the starting
quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues,
scandal, etc.).
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