Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

ATS STATS '13




As of 12-1-13

 
 
 
LAST SATURDAY
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
PLAYS
WITHIN 7
 
 
 
 
 
W
L
W
L
W
L
T
W 
L
 
 
 
 
FROM THE COUCH
3
3
3
4
2
2
1
2
5
 
 
 
 
WILDCAT (espn)
2
3
1
5
1
1
1
2
4
 
 
 
 
CARDINAL (espn)
3
2
3
3
0
0
1
3
3
 
 
 
 
BOILERMAKER (btn)
3
2
3
3
0
1
0
2
4
 
 
 
 
HORNED FROG (btn)
3
1
2
3
0
0
0
3
3
 
 
 
 
WOLVERINE (isportsweb)
3
2
2
4
1
0
0
3
3
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SEASON sorted by SPREAD RECORD
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
PLAYS
WITHIN 7
sprd %
closest %
plays%
7%
 
W
L
W
L
W
L
T
W 
L
 
 
 
 
FROM THE COUCH
32
31
28
37
15
16
1
30
41
51%
43%
48%
42%
WOLVERINE (isportsweb)
36
36
27
47
14
15
1
26
50
50%
36%
48%
34%
BOILERMAKER (btn)
34
35
27
45
15
14
0
26
50
49%
38%
52%
34%
HORNED FROG (btn)
34
36
29
44
12
7
0
28
48
49%
40%
63%
37%
CARDINAL (espn)
31
38
30
42
6
11
1
25
51
45%
42%
35%
33%
WILDCAT (espn)
26
42
20
49
8
11
1
24
52
38%
29%
42%
32%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SEASON sorted by CLOSEST
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
PLAYS
WITHIN 7
sprd %
closest %
plays%
7%
 
W
L
W
L
W
L
T
W 
L
 
 
 
 
FROM THE COUCH
32
31
28
37
15
16
1
30
41
51%
43%
48%
42%
CARDINAL (espn)
31
38
30
42
6
11
1
25
51
45%
42%
35%
33%
HORNED FROG (btn)
34
36
29
44
12
7
0
28
48
49%
40%
63%
37%
BOILERMAKER (btn)
34
35
27
45
15
14
0
26
50
49%
38%
52%
34%
WOLVERINE (isportsweb)
36
36
27
47
14
15
1
26
50
50%
36%
48%
34%
WILDCAT (espn)
26
42
20
49
8
11
1
24
52
38%
29%
42%
32%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SEASON sorted by PLAYS
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
PLAYS
WITHIN 7
sprd %
closest %
plays%
7%
 
W
L
W
L
W
L
T
W 
L
 
 
 
 
HORNED FROG (btn)
34
36
29
44
12
7
0
28
48
49%
40%
63%
37%
BOILERMAKER (btn)
34
35
27
45
15
14
0
26
50
49%
38%
52%
34%
FROM THE COUCH
32
31
28
37
15
16
1
30
41
51%
43%
48%
42%
WOLVERINE (isportsweb)
36
36
27
47
14
15
1
26
50
50%
36%
48%
34%
WILDCAT (espn)
26
42
20
49
8
11
1
24
52
38%
29%
42%
32%
CARDINAL (espn)
31
38
30
42
6
11
1
25
51
45%
42%
35%
33%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SEASON sorted by WITHIN 7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
SPREAD RECORD
CLOSEST
PLAYS
WITHIN 7
sprd %
closest %
plays%
7%
 
W
L
W
L
W
L
T
W 
L
 
 
 
 
FROM THE COUCH
32
31
28
37
15
16
1
30
41
51%
43%
48%
42%
HORNED FROG (btn)
34
36
29
44
12
7
0
28
48
49%
40%
63%
37%
BOILERMAKER (btn)
34
35
27
45
15
14
0
26
50
49%
38%
52%
34%
WOLVERINE (isportsweb)
36
36
27
47
14
15
1
26
50
50%
36%
48%
34%
CARDINAL (espn)
31
38
30
42
6
11
1
25
51
45%
42%
35%
33%
WILDCAT (espn)
26
42
20
49
8
11
1
24
52
38%
29%
42%
32%

 
 
SPREAD RECORD-Simply displays the ATS record.
CLOSEST - It’s possible to be on the correct side of the spread yet not be as accurate. EX: If I predict Michigan by 12, the spread is 6, and Michigan wins by 7, I get a win in the spread record category. I get a loss in the closest category because the spread (7-6=1) was closer than my prediction (12-7=5).
PLAYS- I’m not promoting any type of illegal activity here but if you happened to be in a Las Vegas sports bar you might want to reconsider making a “play” on a game where your number varies from the spread by only a few points. I think a seven point or more differential should instill a reasonable amount of confidence. This category tracks such instances.
WITHIN 7-This category tracks how many times a predicted point spread was within seven points of the actual spread. Why does this matter? Because one can never lose in the play category if the prediction is within 7 points. 35 percent is about average in this category. Close to 50 percent is excellent.

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