Sharing and comparing my method for trying to beat the spread

I live in the Midwest which is Big Ten country. Once conference play starts virtually every Big Ten game is televised in my region and I commit myself to try and watch all of them. I have three televisions set up as some games are being played at the same time. I have no bias or affiliation to any Big Ten team as I am a lifelong Notre Dame fan (I include ND games in my viewing schedule as well). My comments and reports are qualified only by my love of the game and an extreme commitment to watching and following Big Ten football.

KIS RANKINGS 2012


JANUARY 8, 2013

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.63
0.92
0.61
0.10
12
1
2
Florida
1.63
0.83
0.69
0.10
10
2
3
Oregon
1.62
0.92
0.59
0.11
11
1
4
Alabama
1.61
0.92
0.59
0.11
12
1
5
Texas A&M
1.60
0.82
0.63
0.15
9
2
6
Ohio State
1.57
1.00
0.49
0.08
12
0
7
Stanford
1.57
0.86
0.59
0.12
12
2
8
South Carolina
1.53
0.83
0.58
0.11
10
2
9
San Jose St
1.53
0.83
0.56
0.14
10
2
10
Kansas State
1.52
0.83
0.57
0.11
10
2

*see the 1-11 post for comments on this week’s rankings

A team’s ranking is determined by the TOTAL column which is the sum of the WIN%, OPP% and ROAD columns.
WIN % represents a team’s winning percentage against FBS (Division I-A) teams only. Games against non FBS opponents are not counted regardless of the outcome. The won-lost column at the far right represents a team’s record against FBS opponents only.
OPP %  represents the winning percentage of a team’s opponents against FBS schools. Again, non FBS games are disregarded.  A team’s game against a particular opponent is not counted in this calculation to prevent a team from being penalized for winning. (Ex: If LSU beats Auburn, the loss is not charged to Auburn when figuring LSU’s OPP %).
ROAD represents the percentage of a team’s games played on the road divided by four. I think road games should be part of the equation but not with the same weight as the other two categories, so I diluted the percentage. Neutral sites are considered half of a road game.

 *see the 9-11 & 9-18 post for further explanation of the KIS Rankings

 (Please pardon the redundant greeting, I’m new to blogging and haven’t yet figured out a way to remove it from this page without deleting it from my home page.)
 

DECEMBER 2, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.70
1.00
0.60
0.09
12
0
2
Florida
1.69
0.91
0.68
0.10
10
1
3
Oregon
1.59
0.91
0.57
0.11
10
1
4
Alabama
1.58
0.92
0.56
0.10
11
1
5
Ohio State
1.58
1.00
0.50
0.08
12
0
6
Stanford
1.58
0.85
0.62
0.12
11
2
7
Texas A&M
1.58
0.80
0.63
0.15
8
2
8
Kansas State
1.56
0.91
0.54
0.11
10
1
9
Oklahoma
1.53
0.82
0.58
0.13
9
2
10
South Carolina
1.52
0.82
0.59
0.11
9
2

*see the 12-3 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

NOVEMBER 25, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Florida
1.69
0.91
0.68
0.10
10
1
2
Notre Dame
1.69
1.00
0.59
0.09
12
0
3
Ohio State
1.58
1.00
0.50
0.08
12
0
4
Oregon
1.58
0.91
0.56
0.11
10
1
5
Texas A&M
1.57
0.80
0.62
0.15
8
2
6
Stanford
1.57
0.83
0.61
0.13
10
2
7
Kansas State
1.55
0.90
0.52
0.13
9
1
8
Alabama
1.54
0.91
0.53
0.10
10
1
9
Nebraska
1.54
0.82
0.61
0.11
9
2
10
South Carolina
1.53
0.82
0.59
0.11
9
2

*see the 11-27 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

NOVEMBER 18, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.66
1.00
0.58
0.08
11
0
2
Florida
1.63
0.90
0.64
0.09
9
1
3
Texas A&M
1.59
0.78
0.65
0.17
7
2
4
Alabama
1.57
0.90
0.56
0.11
9
1
5
Ohio State
1.57
1.00
0.48
0.09
11
0
6
Nebraska
1.56
0.80
0.66
0.10
8
2
7
Kansas State
1.54
0.90
0.52
0.13
9
1
8
Stanford
1.54
0.82
0.61
0.11
9
2
9
Oregon
1.54
0.90
0.54
0.10
9
1
10
Clemson
1.50
0.90
0.49
0.11
9
1

*see the 11-20 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

NOVEMBER 11, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.67
1.00
0.58
0.09
10
0
2
Kansas State
1.65
1.00
0.54
0.11
9
0
3
Florida
1.63
0.90
0.65
0.09
9
1
4
Oregon
1.62
1.00
0.51
0.11
9
0
5
Texas A&M
1.62
0.78
0.67
0.17
7
2
6
Alabama
1.59
0.90
0.58
0.11
9
1
7
Nebraska
1.56
0.78
0.67
0.11
7
2
8
Ohio State
1.55
1.00
0.48
0.08
10
0
9
Oregon St
1.50
0.78
0.58
0.14
7
2
10
Clemson
1.49
0.89
0.48
0.13
8
1

*see the 11-13 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

NOVEMBER 4, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Alabama
1.70
1.00
0.58
0.13
9
0
2
Notre Dame
1.70
1.00
0.63
0.07
9
0
3
Oregon
1.63
1.00
0.53
0.09
8
0
4
Kansas State
1.62
1.00
0.53
0.09
8
0
5
Florida
1.61
0.89
0.63
0.10
8
1
6
Ohio State
1.56
1.00
0.48
0.08
10
0
7
Texas A&M
1.55
0.75
0.64
0.16
6
2
8
Oregon St
1.54
0.88
0.54
0.13
7
1
9
Nebraska
1.54
0.75
0.67
0.13
6
2
10
Clemson
1.52
0.88
0.50
0.14
7
1

*see the 11-6 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

OCTOBER 28, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.71
1.00
0.63
0.08
8
0
2
Alabama
1.68
1.00
0.57
0.11
8
0
3
Kansas State
1.66
1.00
0.55
0.11
7
0
4
Florida
1.63
0.88
0.65
0.11
7
1
5
Ohio State
1.59
1.00
0.51
0.08
9
0
6
Oregon
1.58
1.00
0.51
0.07
7
0
7
Oregon St
1.53
0.86
0.53
0.14
6
1
8
LSU
1.51
0.86
0.54
0.11
6
1
9
Texas Tech
1.51
0.71
0.65
0.14
5
2
10
Nebraska
1.49
0.71
0.67
0.11
5
2

*see the 10-30 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

OCTOBER 21, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Florida
1.72
1.00
0.61
0.11
7
0
2
Oregon St
1.67
1.00
0.55
0.13
6
0
3
Notre Dame
1.66
1.00
0.61
0.05
7
0
4
Kansas State
1.66
1.00
0.53
0.13
6
0
5
Oregon
1.63
1.00
0.55
0.08
6
0
6
Alabama
1.63
1.00
0.50
0.13
7
0
7
Texas Tech
1.61
0.83
0.66
0.13
5
1
8
Oklahoma
1.53
0.80
0.61
0.13
4
1
9
Texas A&M
1.52
0.67
0.73
0.13
4
2
10
Ohio State
1.52
1.00
0.45
0.06
8
0

*see the 10-23 post for comments on this week’s rankings

 

OCTOBER 14, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Oregon St
1.75
1.00
0.60
0.15
5
0
2
Notre Dame
1.72
1.00
0.66
0.06
6
0
3
Florida
1.70
1.00
0.57
0.13
6
0
4
Alabama
1.64
1.00
0.54
0.10
6
0
5
Texas A&M
1.62
0.80
0.67
0.15
4
1
6
Iowa State
1.60
0.60
0.90
0.10
3
2
7
Kansas State
1.60
1.00
0.50
0.10
5
0
8
Texas Tech
1.60
0.80
0.70
0.10
4
1
9
Oklahoma
1.59
0.75
0.68
0.16
3
1
10
Ohio State
1.56
1.00
0.48
0.07
7
0

*see the 10-16 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

OCTOBER 7, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Notre Dame
1.76
1.00
0.68
0.08
5
0
2
West Virginia
1.75
1.00
0.69
0.06
4
0
3
Florida
1.73
1.00
0.63
0.10
5
0
4
Iowa State
1.72
0.75
0.85
0.13
3
1
5
Oregon St
1.71
1.00
0.59
0.13
4
0
6
Stanford
1.63
0.80
0.78
0.05
4
1
7
Ohio State
1.58
1.00
0.54
0.04
6
0
8
Oregon
1.58
1.00
0.53
0.05
5
0
9
Alabama
1.58
1.00
0.50
0.08
5
0
10
South Carolina
1.54
1.00
0.46
0.08
6
0

*see the 10-9 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

SEPTEMBER 30, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Oregon St
1.97
1.00
0.80
0.17
3
0
2
Kansas State
1.80
1.00
0.71
0.08
3
0
3
Florida State
1.75
1.00
0.67
0.08
3
0
4
Texas Tech
1.74
1.00
0.57
0.17
3
0
5
Notre Dame
1.73
1.00
0.64
0.09
4
0
6
Stanford
1.72
0.75
0.91
0.06
3
1
7
Florida
1.63
1.00
0.50
0.13
4
0
8
Texas
1.63
1.00
0.50
0.13
4
0
9
Iowa State
1.62
0.67
0.88
0.08
2
1
10
West Virginia
1.57
1.00
0.57
0.00
3
0

*see the 10-2 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

SEPTEMBER 23, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Florida State
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2
0
2
Stanford
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3
0
3
Notre Dame
1.84
1.00
0.75
0.09
4
0
4
Texas Tech
1.79
1.00
0.67
0.13
2
0
5
Arizona
1.75
0.67
1.00
0.08
2
1
6
Iowa State
1.73
1.00
0.60
0.13
2
0
7
Kansas State
1.68
1.00
0.60
0.08
3
0
8
Texas
1.68
1.00
0.60
0.08
3
0
9
Florida
1.68
1.00
0.56
0.13
4
0
10
Oregon
1.67
1.00
0.67
0.00
3
0

*see the 9-25 post for comments on this week’s rankings
 

SEPTEMBER 16, 2012

TOTAL
WIN%
OPP%
ROAD
W
L
1
Iowa State
2.13
1.00
1.00
0.13
2
0
2
Stanford
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3
0
3
Arizona
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
2
0
4
Florida State
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1
0
5
Florida
1.92
1.00
0.75
0.17
3
0
6
Alabama
1.88
1.00
0.75
0.13
3
0
7
Notre Dame
1.88
1.00
0.75
0.13
3
0
8
Clemson
1.81
1.00
0.75
0.06
2
0
9
Rutgers
1.75
1.00
0.50
0.25
2
0
10
Oklahoma
1.75
1.00
0.50
0.25
1
0

*see the 9-18 post for comments on this week’s rankings