I went 2-1 last Saturday. Good to be on the plus side. My predictions and
pre-game comments can be found on my previous post, dated 10-5 (ATS Predictions - Week 6).
My Current Overall Record: 2-5
THE PLAYS
Ohio St. 62
Maryland 14
Closing Line: Ohio St. -30.5
FTC Prediction: Ohio St. 40 Maryland 27
My ATS Pick: Maryland + 30.5
Result: Lose
I figured the handful of big
play athletes on Maryland’s roster would make enough big plays to keep this
game close enough to cover the spread. And when one of the Terrapins’ big play
athletes returned a first quarter kickoff to make the score Ohio St. 14, Maryland
7, it appeared as though I was on track. I never figured Ohio St. to be
trailing at any time in this game, I just figured Maryland had enough to keep
hanging around. Didn’t happen that way at all. Ohio St. never took its foot off
the gas and basically said, “I’ll see your handful of big play athletes and
raise you half a roster full”. I knew it was a bit of a stretch to think that
Maryland QB Max Bortenschlager could perform well at Ohio Stadium in only his
second career start. But he did so well in first start (on the road), that I
figured him to at least occasionally get the ball to his athletes in space. But
Bortenschlager and the rest of the Terps never had a chance. This is the best
I’ve seen Ohio St. play all season.
Wisconsin 38
Nebraska 17
Closing Line: Wisconsin -11
FTC Prediction: Wisconsin 38 Nebraska 13
My ATS Pick: Wisconsin -11
Result: Win
I almost predicted the final
score exactly on this one. I can’t say the game went exactly as I envisioned,
though. I figured Wisconsin to take early control, but it wasn’t until the
fourth quarter that Wisconsin pulled away and got me the cover. I love Wisconsin
HC Paul Chryst’s play-calling. He’s one of the few in college football that
understands that if his RB is picking up 5-6 yards per carry, that translates
into first downs and eventually a TD. All he has to do is call run plays. And
that was the game plan in the fourth quarter. Wisconsin’s line eventually took
over and the Badgers sent waves of fresh RB’s at the tired Huskers defense.
Nebraska QB Tanner Lee played
a bit better than I expected and Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook played worse than
I expected. In fact, after watching this game, I’m not quite as sold on
Wisconsin as I was going in. Hornibrook’s arm isn’t very strong by FBS college
football standards, and that could be a problem.
Iowa 45
Illinois 16
Closing Line: Iowa -16
FTC Prediction: Iowa 33 Illinois 10
My ATS Pick: Iowa -16
Result: Win
You wouldn’t tell by the
final score, but I had to sweat this one out a bit as the fourth quarter began
with Iowa leading by only 8 points (24-16). Illinois played better than I expected
with Jeff George Jr. at QB, but the real problem was Iowa insisting on throwing
an incomplete pass on just about every first down, despite having one of the
best RBs in the conference who was gaining about 5 yards a carry. Welcome back,
Ken O’Keefe. The light bulb finally came on entering the fourth quarter and the
Hawkeyes pounded a tired Illini defense into submission.
THE NON-PLAYS
Michigan St. 14
Michigan 10
Closing Line: Michigan -10.5
FTC Prediction: Michigan 24 Michigan St. 12
My ATS Pick: Pass
Michigan needs a QB. Either
that or John O’Korn has to play better. Pouring rain contributed to the low
score, I think, but as I said, neither team has been overly impressive on the
offensive side of the ball all season. Both teams played good defense. This was
the slugfest I predicted, but obviously I’m surprised by the outcome.
Penn St. 31
Northwestern 7
Closing Line: Penn St. -14
FTC Prediction: Penn St. 30 Northwestern 20
My ATS Pick: Pass
I figured Penn St. to be a
bit overconfident and for Northwestern keep this game close going into the
fourth quarter. There was no evidence one way or the other of
overconfidence…Penn St. played like a well-oiled machine and steadily beat the
Wildcats into submission. Methodical… workmanlike, are a couple of words that
come to mind in describing Penn St.’s performance. Considering that the
competition level is steadily rising game by game, I’d have to say this is the
best I’ve seen Penn St. play, despite, and also in considering, the fact that
star RB Saquon Barkley was held in check most of the game. Northwestern QB
Clayton Thorson is unquestionably talented, and because of that the Wildcats
depend on him to make big plays. But sometimes, like in this game, Thorson lays
an egg.
Purdue 31
Minnesota 17
Closing Line: Purdue -3.5
FTC Prediction: Purdue 27 Minnesota 21
My ATS Pick: Pass
This game was stopped due to
lightning in the area with about 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter with
Purdue leading, 16-14. I switched channels and began watching other games and
never did re-connect with this one when play resumed. ESPN2 didn’t show the
finish, I don’t believe. From what I saw up to the delay was about as expected
– a good matchup that could go either way. Purdue turned out to be the slightly
better team, as I predicted, but my expectations for Purdue QB David Blough to
be one of the main reasons was off target. Blough threw a couple of
interceptions and eventually gave way to Elijah Sindelar, who played good
enough to get the win.
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