BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 7

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are 6 games to look at this week. One will be a play for sure, and two qualify as a play as of now, but I’ll have to see what the spread looks like on Saturday.

My current record: 2-5

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line. 

	1	2	3	Final
INDIANA	0	0	7	7
MICHIGAN	3	10	20	27

I’m assuming Michigan QB Wilton Speight won’t yet be playing. Backup John O’Korn didn’t look so good in his first start last Saturday. Granted, the weather was horrible and Michigan St. brings a good defense, but Michigan needs to improve on offense and it starts at the QB position. Speight wasn’t doing so well before he got injured, so even if he does play, he’s going to have to step it up. Indiana appears to be up and coming under the new regime, and appears to be improved overall. Switching QB’s in mid-stream is a bit of a concern, especially when benched starter Richard Lagow appears to be the better passer. Indiana’s strongest suit is its wide receivers. But Lagow’s play has been steadily dropping off, thus the change to a more mobile, dual threat type QB (Peyton Ramsey) who put up decent passing yards last Saturday against Charleston Southern. But Michigan ain’t Charleston Southern. Far from it. The Wolverines have one of the better defenses in the country, and Ramsey is just a freshman making his second start. I just don’t see Indiana scoring much in this one.

As of now, Michigan is favored by 7 points, so I’ll be taking Michigan in this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MARYLAND	7	14	24	30
NORTHWEST'RN	7	17	24	31

I don’t think anyone would have figured this for a close game before the season began. Northwestern hasn’t met expectations and Maryland has exceeded. Maryland may be down to its fourth QB as the third stringer took a hit to the head last Saturday and is still questionable for this game. The fourth guy, Caleb Henderson, isn’t completely unreliable, though. Some preseason publications had Henderson projected as the starter, but Henderson was injured during the summer. Northwestern has a couple of defensive players sitting out the first half as they were ejected last Saturday for tackling, er…. I mean targeting. Maryland has some big play athletes on offense who I expect to make some big plays, but that’s going to depend on the QB playing just well enough to get the ball in their hands in a favorable position. Both teams have a decent, but not great, defense. Northwestern has been struggling on the O-Line, and QB Clayton Thorson is a capable talent, but is prone to wilting in clutch situations. I think Northwestern is better, but I can’t bring myself to give them much of an edge. I keep envisioning the athletes on Maryland’s offense, Thorson concerns me for the reason I pointed out, and the game is at Maryland.

As of now, Northwestern is favored by 3 points. I would need at least 8 points to take Maryland, so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MINNESOTA	3	6	13	13
MICHIGAN ST	0	10	13	19

Michigan St. came up with a big win last Saturday against then top ten ranked Michigan. But I’m not ready yet to consider the Spartans capable of easily disposing of the mid to lower tier teams in the conference, such as Minnesota. But I will say that I’ve certainly upgraded Michigan St., especially considering they beat a pretty good Iowa team two Saturday’s ago. They’ve been doing it mostly with excellent defense, and I expect that will be enough to get the win here. But again, it’s not a slam dunk. The Gophers have lost their last two, but both have been to comparable teams and both were very close games. Minnesota’s offense is ok, but I think QB Conor Rhoda will struggle a bit against probably the best defense he’s seen all year. I’m looking for more than one interception from Rhoda. Still, I wouldn’t be completely surprised by a Minnesota win. But I’m going to ride the Michigan St. wave and figure the defense does it for them again in a close game.

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 3.5 points. I would need at least 1 point before I would wager on Michigan St., so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NEBRASKA	6	6	6	13
OHIO ST	7	24	38	45

I cashed in on Nebraska’s ineptness last Saturday and might do the same with this game. I think the general public still has a difficult time getting past Nebraska’s iconic history and realizing how bad the Huskers are this season. Ohio St. may have played their best game last Saturday, and it appears as though new OC Kevin Wilson’s excellent system is folding into the offense. I expected to see Wilson’s offense right from the start of the season, but I guess HC Urban Meyer couldn’t just abandon his own system and hand the keys to Wilson (although it wouldn’t be the worst idea). Who knows? Wilson may be off to another head coaching job in the next couple years.  Nebraska isn’t totally inept, though. QB Tanner Lee has some talent, and has been improving his decision making, but I still expect he will throw the ball up for grabs under pressure. Lee has some talent around him as well, so I figure Nebraska to make a game of it for the first quarter before Ohio St. starts to hit their stride. The Buckeyes have several big play athletes on both sides of the ball that I think will eventually overwhelm and wear down the Huskers. The thought did occur to me that both teams might want to take their foot off the gas a bit to avoid injuries. Ohio St. gets a bye next week and then gets into the meat of their schedule. Nebraska HC Mike Riley is on the hot seat, and although another loss won’t help, he may bite the bullet, concede this game, and save his horses for upcoming games that appear to be winnable. But then, the Buckeyes have some talent coming off the bench, and Meyer will still try to score – even if it means throwing the ball – right up to the very end. I like the Buckeyes to win big here.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 24.5 points. I like Ohio St. minus 25 or less, so if this number holds up, I’ll be taking Ohio St. But if the line should creep above 25, I’ll be passing.

	1	2	3	Final
WISCONSIN	3	10	17	23
PURDUE	0	3	10	13

I’ve been touting both of these teams since before the season began. Wisconsin is the favorite, and rightfully so, but watch out for this much improved Purdue team. I’ve always felt the Boilermakers had a decent amount of talent. They just needed a good coach, which they now have. But it’s a tall order to go to Camp Randall and excel, especially against this season’s version of the Badgers. Wisconsin has been playing excellent defense, and they have and emerging star in RB Jonathan Taylor. The Badgers are a bit banged up in the O-line, though, and QB Alex Hornibrook, while playing very well in all other aspects, has been struggling with deep balls and the long outs and crossing patterns that require a strong arm. I expect Purdue to perform better than most might think, but won’t have the depth to keep up with the Badgers for the whole game. But they’ll have to start strong – this thing could snowball into a blowout if they don’t.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 17 points. I like Purdue plus 17 or more, so this one is right on the crusp. If the number holds up or gets bigger, I’ll be taking Purdue, if it drops below 17, I’ll be passing.

	1	2	3	Final
ILLINOIS	10	17	24	30
RUTGERS	7	17	24	31

This may be the only shot at a conference win for both teams. And I think it’s fair to say that both have improved considerably from last season, which speaks to the overall top-to-bottom strength of the conference, I think. This could go either way, and my prediction reflects this. I’m favoring Rutgers a bit, and almost had them winning by up to four points, but with game at Illinois, I’m hesitant. Illinois looked to be improved last Saturday with the insertion of Jeff George Jr. at QB. But star RB Mike Epstein might be a bit banged up. What has me giving Rutgers the edge is the game against a common opponent – Nebraska. Rutgers had Nebraska on the ropes at Lincoln; while Illinois was never really close in their game at home against the Huskers. Both teams play hard, and would probably be regarded much higher in a different conference. This could go either way.

As of now, Illinois is favored by 2.5 points, which is pretty close to how I see it, so I’ll be passing on this one.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 6

What Happened Week 5