BIG TEN FOOTBALL FTC WHAT HAPPENED WEEK 7

I went 2-1 last Saturday.  I’ve been complaining about losing some games due to unpredictable turnovers. I finally got a win in one of the games where the turnovers were in my favor. The stuff you can’t control/predict should even out, theoretically anyway. My predictions and pre-game comments can be found on my previous post, dated 10-12 (ATS Predictions - Week 7).

My Current Overall Record:  4-6

THE PLAYS

Wisconsin 17  Purdue 9  

Closing Line: Wisconsin -17

FTC Prediction: Wisconsin 23 Purdue 13

My ATS Pick: Purdue +17

Result: Win

I felt lucky and unlucky with this pick. First the unlucky: Purdue never got to the end zone but had a couple of chances that would have made me very comfortable with the 17 points I was getting. The Boilermakers blocked a punt that was scooped up by a kid who couldn’t walk the twenty yards to the end zone without hurting himself. Purdue also intercepted a pass that could have been a pick six, but the kid ran out of bounds to avoid a hit from the big, bad quarterback. So the Boilers left some points on the table. Now for the lucky: Wisconsin is easily 17 points better than Purdue. My prediction looks good on paper, and it worked out great as I got a win, but Wisconsin should have covered. The Badgers lineman dominated on both sides of ball. Wisconsin just made too many mistakes. Purdue is up and coming, but they’re not on Wisconsin’s level yet. I’m sure HC Jeff Brohm knows what he’s doing, but I’m still partial to David Blough for QB. I know Blough can be mistake prone, but after this game, I’m not at all sold on Elijah Sindelar.

Michigan 27  Indiana 20  OT 

Closing Line: Michigan -7.5

FTC Prediction: Michigan 27 Indiana 7

My ATS Pick: Michigan -7.5

Result: Lose

I didn’t figure Indiana to score much in this one, and they probably wouldn’t have scored 20 if the Michigan offense could have provided some help. Michigan is wasting a good defense on a poor offense. This team is a good QB away from being special, and so far, the Wolves don’t have a good QB. If they had at least an average QB, they would have won big as the Michigan offense was given plenty of short fields without converting. Indiana’s freshman QB held up better than I figured in that he didn’t make any glaring mistakes. But really, Michigan’s defense had the Hoosiers in check most of the game. A long punt return after yet another three and out from the offense led to a short field and a crucial Indiana TD. The penalties in this game were ridiculous, btw. I’m sure several of them were warranted, but for the most part, this game was called way too tight.

Ohio St. 56  Nebraska 14

Closing Line: Ohio St. -24.5

FTC Prediction: Ohio St. 45 Nebraska 13

My ATS Pick: Ohio St. -24.5

Result: Win

The Buckeyes had this one covered midway through the second quarter. This is the Ohio St. offense I expected to see right from the beginning of the season. New OC Kevin Wilson’s stamp was all over it Saturday night. Super-fast tempo, throwing the ball all over the perimeter, and handing off to a speedy tailback once the defense is spread out and on their heels. This offense was effective against most all teams in the conference when Wilson was at Indiana. Now he’s got Ohio St.’s talent pool at his disposal. I noticed Ohio St. was heating up the prior Saturday, so I certainly considered that in my prediction, but I was banking more on Nebraska’s dismal play this season. I think we can lump Nebraska in with the lower tier teams at this point, and eventually the point spreads will reflect that.

THE NON-PLAYS

Rutgers 35  Illinois 24

Closing Line: Illinois -2.5

FTC Prediction: Rutgers 31 Illinois 30

My ATS Pick: Pass

Rutgers was just better in this one. I had a good hunch that they would be, but I couldn’t go with a wide enough prediction to cash in. I was concerned that the Scarlet Knights were on the road and that Illinois seemed improved when they inserted Jeff George Jr at QB the previous week. George didn’t play so good in this game. Illinois also made a few stupid mistakes that, up to this game, were a thing of past seasons.

Northwestern 37  Maryland 21

Closing Line: Northwestern -3.5

FTC Prediction: Northwestern 31 Maryland 30

My ATS Pick: Pass

I predicted Northwestern as the better team, but couldn’t bring myself to give the
Wildcats too much of an edge. I was concerned about Maryland’s playmakers on offense. I was also concerned that Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson might make some mistakes if the game presented some tense moments. But Northwestern took away all but one of Maryland’s playmakers as they effectively stopped the run, and the game was never so close that Thorson could blow it, although he did throw a couple of ill-advised interceptions. In all fairness to Thorson, though, Northwestern does rely heavily on their QB. Thorson threw the ball almost 50 times and rushed for 48 yards and a TD.

Michigan St. 30  Minnesota 27

Closing Line: Michigan St. -4.5

FTC Prediction: Michigan St. 19 Minnesota 13

My ATS Pick: Pass

Minnesota made a late surge to get the cover, but Michigan St. was in control throughout most of this game. I expected a little more out of Minnesota. The new QB provided the spark near the end of the game, which should give the Gophers some hope going into the second half of the season. Good thing, too, because without the spark, I’d say this Minnesota team would be starting to lose hope.

Previous posts:

Predictions Week 7