I went 2-1 last Saturday. I’ve been
complaining about losing some games due to unpredictable turnovers. I finally
got a win in one of the games where the turnovers were in my favor. The stuff
you can’t control/predict should even out, theoretically anyway. My predictions
and pre-game comments can be found on my previous post, dated 10-12 (ATS Predictions - Week 7).
My Current Overall Record: 4-6
THE PLAYS
Wisconsin 17
Purdue 9
Closing Line: Wisconsin -17
FTC Prediction: Wisconsin 23 Purdue 13
My ATS Pick: Purdue +17
Result: Win
I felt lucky and unlucky with
this pick. First the unlucky: Purdue never got to the end zone but had a couple
of chances that would have made me very comfortable with the 17 points I was
getting. The Boilermakers blocked a punt that was scooped up by a kid who
couldn’t walk the twenty yards to the end zone without hurting himself. Purdue
also intercepted a pass that could have been a pick six, but the kid ran out of
bounds to avoid a hit from the big, bad quarterback. So the Boilers left some
points on the table. Now for the lucky: Wisconsin is easily 17 points better
than Purdue. My prediction looks good on paper, and it worked out great as I
got a win, but Wisconsin should have covered. The Badgers lineman dominated on
both sides of ball. Wisconsin just made too many mistakes. Purdue is up and
coming, but they’re not on Wisconsin’s level yet. I’m sure HC Jeff Brohm knows
what he’s doing, but I’m still partial to David Blough for QB. I know Blough
can be mistake prone, but after this game, I’m not at all sold on Elijah
Sindelar.
Michigan 27
Indiana 20 OT
Closing Line: Michigan -7.5
FTC Prediction: Michigan 27 Indiana 7
My ATS Pick: Michigan -7.5
Result: Lose
I didn’t figure Indiana to
score much in this one, and they probably wouldn’t have scored 20 if the
Michigan offense could have provided some help. Michigan is wasting a good
defense on a poor offense. This team is a good QB away from being special, and so
far, the Wolves don’t have a good QB. If they had at least an average QB, they
would have won big as the Michigan offense was given plenty of short fields
without converting. Indiana’s freshman QB held up better than I figured in that
he didn’t make any glaring mistakes. But really, Michigan’s defense had the
Hoosiers in check most of the game. A long punt return after yet another three
and out from the offense led to a short field and a crucial Indiana TD. The
penalties in this game were ridiculous, btw. I’m sure several of them were
warranted, but for the most part, this game was called way too tight.
Ohio St. 56
Nebraska 14
Closing Line: Ohio St. -24.5
FTC Prediction: Ohio St. 45 Nebraska 13
My ATS Pick: Ohio St. -24.5
Result: Win
The Buckeyes had this one
covered midway through the second quarter. This is the Ohio St. offense I expected
to see right from the beginning of the season. New OC Kevin Wilson’s stamp was
all over it Saturday night. Super-fast tempo, throwing the ball all over the
perimeter, and handing off to a speedy tailback once the defense is spread out
and on their heels. This offense was effective against most all teams in the
conference when Wilson was at Indiana. Now he’s got Ohio St.’s talent pool at
his disposal. I noticed Ohio St. was heating up the prior Saturday, so I certainly
considered that in my prediction, but I was banking more on Nebraska’s dismal
play this season. I think we can lump Nebraska in with the lower tier teams at
this point, and eventually the point spreads will reflect that.
THE NON-PLAYS
Rutgers 35
Illinois 24
Closing Line: Illinois -2.5
FTC Prediction: Rutgers 31 Illinois 30
My ATS Pick: Pass
Rutgers was just better in
this one. I had a good hunch that they would be, but I couldn’t go with a wide
enough prediction to cash in. I was concerned that the Scarlet Knights were on
the road and that Illinois seemed improved when they inserted Jeff George Jr at
QB the previous week. George didn’t play so good in this game. Illinois also
made a few stupid mistakes that, up to this game, were a thing of past seasons.
Northwestern 37
Maryland 21
Closing Line: Northwestern -3.5
FTC Prediction: Northwestern 31 Maryland 30
My ATS Pick: Pass
I predicted Northwestern as
the better team, but couldn’t bring myself to give the
Wildcats too much of an edge. I was concerned about Maryland’s playmakers on offense. I was also concerned that Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson might make some mistakes if the game presented some tense moments. But Northwestern took away all but one of Maryland’s playmakers as they effectively stopped the run, and the game was never so close that Thorson could blow it, although he did throw a couple of ill-advised interceptions. In all fairness to Thorson, though, Northwestern does rely heavily on their QB. Thorson threw the ball almost 50 times and rushed for 48 yards and a TD.
Wildcats too much of an edge. I was concerned about Maryland’s playmakers on offense. I was also concerned that Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson might make some mistakes if the game presented some tense moments. But Northwestern took away all but one of Maryland’s playmakers as they effectively stopped the run, and the game was never so close that Thorson could blow it, although he did throw a couple of ill-advised interceptions. In all fairness to Thorson, though, Northwestern does rely heavily on their QB. Thorson threw the ball almost 50 times and rushed for 48 yards and a TD.
Michigan St. 30
Minnesota 27
Closing Line: Michigan St. -4.5
FTC Prediction: Michigan St. 19 Minnesota 13
My ATS Pick: Pass
Minnesota made a late surge
to get the cover, but Michigan St. was in control throughout most of this game.
I expected a little more out of Minnesota. The new QB provided the spark near
the end of the game, which should give the Gophers some hope going into the
second half of the season. Good thing, too, because without the spark, I’d say
this Minnesota team would be starting to lose hope.
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