I’ll be making predictions on
all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners
vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week.
My current record: 5-10
As is the case with most folks who don’t live in
Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day,
which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to
see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my
write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number
compares to the current line.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
OHIO ST
|
14
|
24
|
38
|
52
|
ILLINOIS
|
0
|
7
|
14
|
14
|
Mismatch here. And Urban
Meyer usually doesn’t take a knee towards the end of the game.
As of now, Ohio
St. is favored by 41 points, which is exactly how I see it so I’ll be passing
on this one.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
MICHIGAN ST
|
7
|
17
|
24
|
34
|
MARYLAND
|
7
|
14
|
17
|
24
|
Michigan St. came crashing
down to earth last Saturday. I thought
QB Brian Lewerke had turned a corner but he regressed badly. Now I’m not sure
what to expect. But Maryland hasn’t been all that reliable either. I’m assuming
QB Max Bortenschlager will be playing, but I don’t think that will be enough
for the Terps to get a road win.
As of now, Michigan
St. is favored by 15.5 points. I’d need 17 points or more to take Maryland, so
unless that happens Saturday morning, I’ll be passing on this one.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
WISCONSIN
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
17
|
MICHIGAN
|
0
|
6
|
6
|
9
|
This is the game that
Wisconsin surely must have had circled on what many consider to be a relatively
easy schedule. Last Saturday’s game against Iowa was a primer and the Badgers
passed with flying colors. This game should answer some questions about QB Alex
Hornibrook as many, including myself, wonder how he will hold up when forced to
make significant plays through air if the Badgers face a defense good enough to
load up the box and stop the Wisconsin running game. Michigan has that kind of
defense. But, so does Wisconsin. Michigan has been on the rise with the
insertion of Brandon Peters at QB, but Peters is young and inexperienced and
this will be the best defense he’s faced… at Camp Randall, one of the tougher
places in the conference to get a road win.
As of now, Wisconsin
is favored by 7 points, which is pretty close to how I see it so I’ll be
passing on this one.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
NORTHWEST'RN
|
7
|
21
|
21
|
28
|
MINNESOTA
|
0
|
7
|
14
|
14
|
Northwestern has been on a
roll. I keep waiting for them to turn in a clunker- history indicates that’s
what they’ll do- but it hasn’t happened. I don’t think it will happen in this
game. I hope not anyway, it looks like this game could be a play.
As of now, Northwestern
is favored by 7 points. If this number holds up or goes down, I’ll be taking
Northwestern.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
PENN ST
|
14
|
35
|
38
|
45
|
NEBRASKA
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
14
|
20 years ago, this would have
been a colossal matchup between two iconic programs. It’ll be nice to see the
two iconic helmets clashing on the same field, but there’s nothing colossal about
this matchup these days. I hope Nebraska someday gets back to good, but the
program is currently spiraling downward and I believe the team has just about
given up, due in large part to the handwriting on wall concerning HC Mike Riley.
Throw in the fact that Nebraska’s starting QB won’t be playing, and this game
has the makings of a blowout. It’s obvious Riley is a super nice guy, and Penn
St. HC James Franklin seems like a nice enough guy to take a little pity on
Riley near the end of the game and take his foot off the gas some.
As of now, Penn
St. is favored by 25 points. I’d take Penn St. minus 24 or less, so this might
become a play by Saturday, but as of now it is not.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
IOWA
|
3
|
17
|
24
|
24
|
PURDUE
|
7
|
7
|
14
|
17
|
Purdue has been my dark horse
all season, and a few weeks ago I might have called for a Purdue win here. But I’ve
kind of soured on the Boilermakers lately. I still like ‘em and still think
they have a chance to win this game, but I’m a little put off with HC Jeff
Brohm’s excessive use of trick plays. And I still don’t trust QB Elijah
Sindelar. Can’t say that I trust Iowa that much either, but they are at home
and certainly have a team good enough to win this game.
As of now, Iowa
is favored by 7 points, which is exactly how I see it so I’ll be passing on
this one.
1
|
2
|
3
|
Final
|
|
INDIANA
|
7
|
17
|
24
|
24
|
RUTGERS
|
3
|
13
|
20
|
20
|
I think Rutgers has a chance
in this game. More of a chance than the oddsmakers are giving them, anyway.
As of now, Indiana
is favored by 10.5 points. I would need 11 or more points to take Rutgers, so I’ll
have to see what number I get on Saturday.
My method is to begin making
my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still
fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done
handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a
particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider
it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than
seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the
week (after I’ve already handicapped the game) that there is an issue involving the starting
quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues,
scandal, etc.).
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