BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 4

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games (I’ve included a Notre Dame vs. Big Ten matchup in this week) and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are four games to look at this week.

My current record: 0-0

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
NEBRASKA	7	17	24	34
RUTGERS	0	3	10	13

Neither of these teams has been impressive so far. Having Rutgers on the schedule at this point is just what the doctor ordered for this Nebraska team as they come off of an embarrassing home loss to MAC opponent Northern Illinois. The Huskers will be hearing from its fans and media all week in a negative light to be sure, which will further shake the team’s confidence. But Nebraska, while not overly talented by Big Ten standards by any stretch, has more talent than Rutgers, who is coming off of a confidence building win over an inferior FCS opponent. The Scarlet Knights also discovered some lightning in a bottle as Freshman QB Jonathan Lewis flourished in first significant playing time…again, against weak opposition. I look for Nebraska to still stumble and bumble a bit – QB Tanner Lee is always going to be prone to interceptions in my opinion- , and I figure last week’s momentum, the influence of OC Jerry Kill on the sidelines, and a Nebraska defense that is average at best, will provide some scoring opportunities for Rutgers. But the Huskers out-talent this team overall and will pull away in the end as they wear down an inferior opponent.

As of now, the point spread is sitting at 11 points. I don’t feel entirely comfortable making a play on Nebraska, but this number seems low, considering the game is at Lincoln. I like Nebraska minus 14 points or less, so in all likelihood, this game will be a play.

	1	2	3	Final
PURDUE	3	3	10	10
MICHIGAN	0	13	13	23

Purdue is my dark-horse but things don’t line up perfectly for an upset win here. Close, though. I’ve felt for the past several seasons that Purdue, depth notwithstanding, has had a decent amount of talent to put on the field, but has been poorly coached. They’re better coached now and it shows on both sides of the ball.But I don’t expect Michigan to be flat. A bit overconfident maybe, but not flat. I think Michigan has the better talent and depth and will grind out a victory, but will continue to struggle a bit offensively, and defensively will give up more yards than they have in any game this season to an up and coming Purdue offense.

As of now, Michigan is favored by ten points. That’s pretty close to how I see it, so I would back off of this one. I’d take Michigan if the spread was 6 points or less, but that doesn’t seem likely.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN ST	7	13	20	27
NOTRE DAME	0	10	17	23

I would have liked to have seen more of Michigan St., but all I have to go on is one game (vs Western Michigan). The Spartans didn’t look bad in that one. Didn’t look great, either. I just don’t have a good vibe when it comes to my Irish. HC Brian Kelly was pressured into making a lot of changes and it appears to have left the Irish a bit disjointed. They’ve got a great running back in Josh Adams and another good runner in QB Brandon Wimbush. But Wimbush is inconsistent throwing the ball. I think both teams move the ball well enough, and I could see either team winning, but I have to go with the home team in this one.

As of now, Notre Dame is favored by 3 1/2 points. That’s just barely enough for me to play Michigan St., but if the Spartans aren’t getting at least 3 points, I’m backing off.

	1	2	3	Final
IOWA	0	7	14	21
PENN ST	3	13	20	34

Neither of these teams has yet to play a legitimate opponent other than Iowa’s overtime victory over Iowa St. Penn St. appears to be the real deal, but at this point, it’s still hard to tell. A trip to Kinnick Stadium will certainly shed some light. This appears to be a decent Iowa team that’s getting it done with a solid QB who seems to be good in the clutch, but really struggles badly with the deep ball, which has already cost the Hawkeyes a few touchdowns. RB Akrum Wadley left last Saturday’s game with an injury, which is a blow to the Hawkeyes. Wadley is the best offensive threat the Hawkeyes have and they’ll need him at full strength for this one. Iowa, and its fans, should be motivated by last season’s embarrassing blowout loss at Penn St. Given Iowa QB Nathan Stanley’s struggles with the deep ball (although he’s bound to hit one eventually), Wadley’s injury, and a defense that’s good but not great, I don’t see Iowa keeping up with the Nittany Lions. That having been said, I’m not calling for a repeat of last season’s blowout, either. Stanley seems to have that “it” factor and he may come up big in this game. Penn St. may not be all they appear to be, and may even come in a bit overconfident. But I do envision Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley breaking off a couple of big runs and QB Trace McSorley connecting with TE Mike Gesicki on some big plays.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 12 1/2. Which is about how I see it, so I would back off of this one. 

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 3

What Happened  Week 2