BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 5

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are six games to look at this week.

My current record: 0-2

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
ILLINOIS	0	7	17	20
NEBRASKA	3	10	17	24

Illinois is a lower tier team, make no mistake, but I’m seeing some fight in the Illini. I’m not seeing so much of the ridiculously stupid mistakes that has plagued this team in recent seasons. It appears as though HC Lovie Smith has restored some semblance of order and direction. Nebraska is spiraling in the opposite direction. I’d almost think that QB Tanner Lee was throwing the game last Saturday against Rutgers. As a blogger, even I try not to be too harsh on college kids. But BTN’s Glen Mason, who was announcing the game and would presumably feel obliged to hold back some, flat out called the kid a liability. And it’s obvious he’s not going to change, he’s been throwing the same kind of interceptions all season. Yet HC Mike Riley has yet to bench him. And in Riley’s defense, Lee did finish strong with a game winning drive, so obviously Riley knew what he was doing. The Huskers didn’t appear to have much more talent than Northern Illinois or Rutgers, so at this point, I have to consider Nebraska a lower tier team as well. So I figure this game to be close, with Lee throwing at least one interception if not more. But Illinois isn’t so far along that we won’t see few turnovers from them as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Illinois get a big win home win against a storied program, but I’m not quite ready to make that leap of faith yet.

I was guessing I’d be taking Illinois, but Nebraska is favored by only 6 points, which is not even close to the 11 points I’d need to play the Illini. Apparently the cat’s out of the bag, everyone knows Nebraska ain’t so good. I’ll pass on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
PENN ST	7	17	31	34
INDIANA	3	13	20	27

I haven’t seen as much of Indiana as I’d have liked to, but what I did see, I liked. This is another lower tier team that appears to be on the rise. They’ve already been on the road and garnered a nice, convincing win over Virginia. Granted, it wasn’t Happy Valley and it wasn’t against Penn St. But the Hoosiers have a fine QB, some great receivers, and although the numbers aren’t showing it, a better defense than the sieve the Hoosiers have generally been known as in recent seasons. Penn St. is coming off of a draining road win at Iowa so I expect the Nittany Lions to be a little flat for this one. And while I think Penn St. is very good, I don’t think they’re quite as good as they’re generally perceived. I look for Indiana to throw a scare into the Nittany Lions, but, similar their game against Ohio St., wear down towards the end and give up some big plays to the playmakers on Penn St.’s roster. Not enough depth on the Indiana roster to call for an upset.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 17.5. I like Indiana plus 14 or more. So, unless the line changes dramatically, I’ll be taking Indiana in this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN ST	7	14	17	20
IOWA	0	6	9	23

Michigan St. burned me last week, but they weren’t as bad as it appears. Just too many critical turnovers, which I don’t expect in this game. This should be a good matchup. Iowa is coming off of an emotional home loss, which may take some wind out of their sails, but then again, maybe not. Iowa, like Northwestern, has historically been unpredictable. Never know what you’re going to get from one week to the next. The fact that this game is at East Lansing gives the Spartans and edge, and I believe these teams are close to an even match talent-wise. What makes me give Iowa the edge is their QB, Nate Stanley. He’s not a super talent, but he seems to have that “it” factor that I look for in a QB. Able to come through in the clutch.

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 3 points. I’d want at least 4 points to take Iowa, so a play here is not out of the question. I’ll have to wait and see if I get my number on Saturday.

	1	2	3	Final
MINNESOTA	7	13	20	30
MARYLAND	0	14	14	17

Maryland lost their second starting QB to injury early in last Saturday’s game against UCF. After that, the Terrapins seemed to slowly morph from the high powered, high spirited team that knocked off nationally ranked Texas in the opener, back to last season’s bottom dwelling also-ran. I could see it not only in their play, but in their listless body language. HC DJ Durkin confirmed my observation in his post-game press conference, saying he was disappointed in the way his team seemed to give up. So no doubt, the issue will be addressed and most likely corrected, but the Terrapins are still down to their third string QB, which puts them at a disadvantage. Maryland has some playmakers on offense, just not enough talent to get them the ball in a favorable situation. I haven’t seem as much of Minnesota as I’d have liked, but they’ve put together a good resume so far, and appear to be getting better under the new HC. If Kasim Hill was still the QB for Maryland, I might see this game differently. But Hill is out for the season and the game is at Minnesota, so I like the Gophers.

As of now, Minnesota is favored by 13, which is exactly the way I see it so no value here. I’m passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
WISCONSIN	7	17	24	27
NORTHWESTRN	0	7	7	14

I realize Wisconsin is highly regarded, but I still think they’re cruising under the radar. This team could very well be the best team in the conference. Most of the starters are back from a team that lost only three games last season, all to top ten teams by only a touchdown (one game in OT). QB Alex Hornibrook is playing well, and HC Paul Chryst is an excellent play caller. Northwestern is off to their not-so-unusual slow start, and could turn things around quickly. The Wildcats have historically been predictably unpredictable. But I think Wisconsin will be in control for most of this game. The Badgers put a pretty good thumping on BYU in their last game, but generally speaking; don’t often blow out teams unless they’re facing a cupcake. Northwestern is no cupcake, and they too have several returning starters from a decent team and, consequently, were picked by many to make a serious run at the West Division title. QB Clayton Thorson is expected to be a big contributor, but I’m not a huge fan. Thorson has talent, but he doesn’t have that “it” factor I referred to earlier. He may prove me wrong, but I don’t think he holds up too well in clutch situations.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 14, which is about how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
RUTGERS	3	3	6	13
OHIO ST	7	20	33	47

Ohio St. hasn’t been living up to expectations, but I think they’re clearly a class above Rutgers. Rutgers seems to be improving, but have a ways to go before becoming a threat to the Buckeyes. These kinds of matchups are difficult in that I have to try to consider how it’s going to play out in the final quarter of a blowout. Garbage time, if you will. I noticed that, even though he pulled his starters, Buckeyes HC Urban Meyer was still throwing the ball in the remaining minutes of a blowout win over UNLV. Usually, it’s the team that’s way behind that ends up scoring some garbage TD’s, often times getting the backdoor cover. I think the Buckeyes will get some resistance, but for the most part, could pretty much name their number. But you never know in college football. It’s at Rutgers and as I said, they are improving.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 29.5. If the line should slip down to 27 or less, I’d take the Buckeyes. But that’s not very likely so I’ll probably be passing on this one.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 4

What Happened Week 3