BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 10

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week.

My current record: 4-7

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
PURDUE	7	14	17	24
ILLINOIS	0	0	10	10

Purdue is coming off a couple of disappointing losses. They were close games, but losses nonetheless. I like that David Blough seems to have taken back the role of starting QB. Purdue is the better team, I think, they need a win badly, and they’re at home, so I like the Boilermakers here. The Illini won’t be an easy out, though. Illinois is probably the worst team in the conference but they play hard, especially on defense. They gave nationally ranked Wisconsin a good fight last Saturday, and that was with poor play at the QB position, which can only get better this week. So I’m not calling for a blowout by any stretch.

As of now, Purdue is favored by 14 points, which is exactly how I see it, so this game will not be a play.

	1	2	3	Final
RUTGERS	7	21	21	31
MARYLAND	7	17	31	38

I’m calling for lots of scoring here because both defenses aren’t quite as good as the other team’s offense. Rutgers is making progress this season, and has a very good chance to win this game. Having a healthy Janarion Grant is a big boost. I figure Grant to make an impact. But Maryland has a few players on offense that have the same type of big play capability as Grant. I figure them to make an impact as well. I like Maryland to outshoot the Scarlet Knights in this one.

As of now, Maryland is favored by 2.5 points. I’d take Maryland if they were getting any points or even if this game becomes a pick ‘em. If not, I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN	3	12	22	22
MINNESOTA	0	7	7	7

Michigan made a switch at QB last Saturday and immediately got good results. The switch was sorely needed because this offense has been struggling, particularly at the QB position. But the honeymoon’s over for new QB Brandon Peters. It’s a bit different being the starter as opposed to coming into a game to replace someone who is playing poorly. Michigan fans loved John O’Korn (the QB Peters is replacing) when he replaced a struggling Wilton Speight in mid game. O’Korn hadn’t played that well since. So the jury’s still out on Peters so I’m not going overboard with Michigan’s scoring production here. But I do like the Michigan defense, particularly at home against the Minnesota offense. The Gophers aren’t terrible on offense, but I haven’t seen anything that makes me think they’ll be successful against a very good defense.

As of now, Michigan is favored by 15.5 points, which is almost exactly how I see it, so this game will not be a play.

	1	2	3	Final
NEBRASKA	7	14	17	24
NORTHWEST'RN	0	13	24	27

I had written Nebraska off. Figured QB Tanner Lee would be throwing interceptions all season, and I never have been a fan of HC Mike Riley. As a coach, that is. Seems like a helluva guy, but I predicted long ago he wouldn’t be back next season. But the Huskers surprised me last Saturday in beating Purdue. Granted, Purdue isn’t upper echelon, but I sure figured them as better than a Nebraska team who lost to Northern Illinois earlier in the season. And Lee is actually playing well, although I’m still skeptical. Northwestern has been playing improved football as well—they also have a dark spot on the resume with an early season blowout loss to Duke. And QB Clayton Thorson finally showed a little heart with a clutch performance in last Saturday’s overtime victory over Michigan St. My heart tells me Northwestern will win by more than 3 points, but my head is considering that the game is at Lincoln, and that Nebraska can go toe –to- toe with a historically inconsistent Northwestern program if -and this is a big, shaky if- Lee doesn’t make too many poor decisions.

As of now, Nebraska is favored by 1 point. I would need the line to move to 4 points to take Northwestern, which isn’t probable, so I will most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
IOWA	3	10	13	13
OHIO ST	3	10	17	27

Upset here? Big letdown from the Buckeyes after an emotional, colossal win last Saturday?  Kinnick is the place for something like that to happen. I don’t have the guts to call for it, though. Iowa QB Nate Stanley is growing into the position with each passing week, and is due for an exceptionally good game. And I do think that Ohio St. will be a bit flat. But I just can’t overlook the difference in big play talent. Iowa has RB Akrum Wadley, but for whatever reason… play calling, offensive line, whatever,… they just can’t seem to get him the ball in open field. I look for this game to be competitive/entertaining through most of the game, conjuring up the idea of an upset in the making, but for Ohio St. to wake up and make a move somewhere around the end of the third quarter.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 17.5 points. I would need at least 21 points to take Iowa, so I will most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN ST	7	7	10	17
PENN ST	7	14	28	34

Upset here? Big letdown from the Nittany Lions after an emotional, colossal loss last Saturday? That was my thought before I sat down to handicap this one. Penn St. may have a tougher time getting up for a game this week than Ohio St. The Nittany Lions have to be heartbroken. They were in control of that game all the way up to the closing moments. But when I thought this game through, I figured that even though Michigan St. has a very good defense, one of Penn St.’s big playmakers, namely Barkley, McSorley, and Gesicki, would, well, make some big plays. And, despite QB Brian Lewerke suddenly becoming a decent passer last Saturday, I don’t see Michigan St. turning in the same type of big plays. I just think that Penn St. will get just enough of a lead in the second half to force Michigan St. to have to start throwing the ball more than they want to, which could lead to some turnovers and garbage points for Penn St. in the late going. I do think the game will be competitive for a while, though. One of those games where you might say the game was closer than the score indicates.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 9 points. If this holds up I’ll be taking Penn St. In fact I’d take Penn St. minus 10 but no more than that. This is a scary one. Michigan St. HC Mark Dantonio has found a way in the past to win these types of games.

	1	2	3	Final
INDIANA	3	10	10	17
WISCONSIN	7	17	24	34

Wisconsin has some things to work on after last Saturday’s sub-par performance. The Badgers seem to be yo-yoing their way through a schedule that so far hasn’t been too challenging for a team of their caliber. According to the graph, this should be an “up” week. And they really do need some improvement in areas before they make a run at the conference championship. Indiana is scrappy though, so I expect them to offer some resistance, and they are at home. And, even though it’s late in the season and the Hoosiers haven’t won a conference game, I don’t get the impression that Indiana is about to tank the rest of the season. But I think the Badgers running game will eventually wear down the Indiana defense and win the game in typical Wisconsin fashion.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 13.5 points. The odds makers opened this line at 9 points. If it should slip back down to that number on Saturday, I’ll take Wisconsin. In fact I’d lay as much as 10 points and take Wisconsin. But that’s not likely, so I’ll probably be passing on this one.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 9

What Happened Week 8