BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 12

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week.

My current record: 5-10

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
OHIO ST	14	24	38	52
ILLINOIS	0	7	14	14

Mismatch here. And Urban Meyer usually doesn’t take a knee towards the end of the game.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 41 points, which is exactly how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN ST	7	17	24	34
MARYLAND	7	14	17	24

Michigan St. came crashing down to earth last Saturday.  I thought QB Brian Lewerke had turned a corner but he regressed badly. Now I’m not sure what to expect. But Maryland hasn’t been all that reliable either. I’m assuming QB Max Bortenschlager will be playing, but I don’t think that will be enough for the Terps to get a road win.

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 15.5 points. I’d need 17 points or more to take Maryland, so unless that happens Saturday morning, I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
WISCONSIN	7	7	14	17
MICHIGAN	0	6	6	9

This is the game that Wisconsin surely must have had circled on what many consider to be a relatively easy schedule. Last Saturday’s game against Iowa was a primer and the Badgers passed with flying colors. This game should answer some questions about QB Alex Hornibrook as many, including myself, wonder how he will hold up when forced to make significant plays through air if the Badgers face a defense good enough to load up the box and stop the Wisconsin running game. Michigan has that kind of defense. But, so does Wisconsin. Michigan has been on the rise with the insertion of Brandon Peters at QB, but Peters is young and inexperienced and this will be the best defense he’s faced… at Camp Randall, one of the tougher places in the conference to get a road win.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 7 points, which is pretty close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NORTHWEST'RN	7	21	21	28
MINNESOTA	0	7	14	14

Northwestern has been on a roll. I keep waiting for them to turn in a clunker- history indicates that’s what they’ll do- but it hasn’t happened. I don’t think it will happen in this game. I hope not anyway, it looks like this game could be a play.

As of now, Northwestern is favored by 7 points. If this number holds up or goes down, I’ll be taking Northwestern.

	1	2	3	Final
PENN ST	14	35	38	45
NEBRASKA	0	0	0	14

20 years ago, this would have been a colossal matchup between two iconic programs. It’ll be nice to see the two iconic helmets clashing on the same field, but there’s nothing colossal about this matchup these days. I hope Nebraska someday gets back to good, but the program is currently spiraling downward and I believe the team has just about given up, due in large part to the handwriting on wall concerning HC Mike Riley. Throw in the fact that Nebraska’s starting QB won’t be playing, and this game has the makings of a blowout. It’s obvious Riley is a super nice guy, and Penn St. HC James Franklin seems like a nice enough guy to take a little pity on Riley near the end of the game and take his foot off the gas some.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 25 points. I’d take Penn St. minus 24 or less, so this might become a play by Saturday, but as of now it is not.

	1	2	3	Final
IOWA	3	17	24	24
PURDUE	7	7	14	17

Purdue has been my dark horse all season, and a few weeks ago I might have called for a Purdue win here. But I’ve kind of soured on the Boilermakers lately. I still like ‘em and still think they have a chance to win this game, but I’m a little put off with HC Jeff Brohm’s excessive use of trick plays. And I still don’t trust QB Elijah Sindelar. Can’t say that I trust Iowa that much either, but they are at home and certainly have a team good enough to win this game.

As of now, Iowa is favored by 7 points, which is exactly how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
INDIANA	7	17	24	24
RUTGERS	3	13	20	20

I think Rutgers has a chance in this game. More of a chance than the oddsmakers are giving them, anyway.

As of now, Indiana is favored by 10.5 points. I would need 11 or more points to take Rutgers, so I’ll have to see what number I get on Saturday.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 11

What Happened Week 10