BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 13

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week.

My current record: 6-10

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
NEBRASKA	7	7	10	17
IOWA	14	17	24	34

I’m a little torn on this one. I can see Iowa blowing the Huskers out, but the Hawkeyes have been playing so poorly since the big win over Ohio St. And the game is at Lincoln, Nebraska QB Tanner Lee - as erratic as he is - can make some nice throws, and while this Nebraska program has pretty much been off track since about two games ago, I can see the Huskers rallying for one last game at home and probably the last game for their Head Coach. Emotional advantage Nebraska, I think. Still, I have to consider that poor Nebraska defense. All considered, this is the number I’ve come up with.

As of now, Iowa is favored by 3.5 points, so I’ll be taking Iowa.

	1	2	3	Final
PURDUE	0	7	14	17
INDIANA	0	3	3	11

Love this matchup. Rivalry game between two lower tier teams with a bowl game on the line. Both teams are embarking on a new beginning with a new HC. I figure it’ll be intense. Which often times translates into a defensive battle. I like the Boilermakers, figuring a slight advantage for home field and another slight edge to the Purdue coaching staff.

As of now, Purdue is favored by 2.5 points. I would need a point or more to take Purdue, so I’ll most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
RUTGERS	0	0	0	7
MICHIGAN ST	3	13	20	23

This is another game that could be a blowout but I’m tempering that notion. I don’t figure the Spartans to be all that inspired, and QB Brian Lewerke is currently in “bad Brian” mode. Rutgers, on the other hand, is playing its last game of the season at home, and would probably be inspired to play well as their last performance was embarrassingly bad.

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 13.5 points, which is pretty close to how I see it, so I’ll most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
ILLINOIS	7	7	7	14
NORTHWEST'RN	0	21	21	38

This is a nice rivalry game, but there’s too much of a discrepancy in talent/confidence in this game. Northwestern might be a little flat, but it won’t matter.

As of now, Northwestern is favored by 16.5 points. If this number is 17 or lower on Saturday, I’ll take Northwestern.

	1	2	3	Final
MARYLAND	7	7	17	17
PENN ST	7	21	28	35

I guess they’re trying to turn this into a rivalry game. Won’t be much of a rivalry until Maryland catches up. I figure Penn St. to be a little flat, and Maryland has some decent players, so I’ve got this one closer than most might figure.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 22 points. If it climbs up to 25 or more, I’ll take Maryland, but that isn’t likely.

	1	2	3	Final
MINNESOTA	7	7	7	7
WISCONSIN	0	10	17	31

Kind of a tuff one to handicap. Wisconsin is bound to be flat coming off of the big win over Michigan. And they’re already in the conference championship game.
And Minnesota probably doesn’t look like much of a challenge after the Gophers were blown out by Northwestern last Saturday. In light of all this, will a shot at the national playoffs be enough inspiration to keep a bunch of youngsters focused? Probably not. I look for Wisconsin to start slow, but as usual, wear down the opposing defense in the later part of the game.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 17 points. If this number holds up or drops to a lower number, I’ll take Wisconsin.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN	3	3	6	13
OHIO ST	0	10	10	17

This is my favorite game to watch. I think Michigan is better than most might think right now, and I don’t think Ohio St. is as good as most might think right now. I’m calling for a close one, and wouldn’t entirely rule out an upset.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 11.5 points. If this number stays at 11 points or more, I’ll take Michigan.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 12

What Happened Week 11