BIG TEN FOOTBALL FTC WHAT HAPPENED WEEK 8

I went 0-1 last Saturday.  The loss stings, but what an entertaining Saturday. The Big Ten is competitive top to bottom and that was on display as four of the six games were decided by eight points or less. Good old fashioned, smashmouth Big Ten football too—nine of the twelve teams scored less than 20 points.

My predictions and pre-game comments can be found on my previous post, dated 10-19.

(ATS Predictions - Week 8)

My Current Overall Record:  4-7

THE PLAYS

Northwestern 17  Iowa 10  OT

Closing Line: Northwestern -3

FTC Prediction: Iowa 31 Northwestern 24

My ATS Pick: Iowa +3

Result: Lose

I didn’t think this game was going to be a play when I posted my predictions on Thursday. At that time, Iowa was favored by 2 points. Most of Friday, too. When I checked the line Saturday morning, Northwestern was favored by 3. I’ve never seen such a big swing in such a short amount of time. You’d think I’d be glad to get the points, but a swing like that is a red flag. Somethings up, and it ain’t good for the Hawkeyes. I googled the game, Iowa football, Iowa injury update…. Nothing. It was getting time for me to make my play, so I took Iowa with much trepidation, convinced come kickoff I was going to find out that the starting QB was out, or half the team had the flu, or something of that nature. Turns out, Iowa LB Josey Jewell was a late scratch. I was somewhat relieved. Jewel could be the best LB in the country, but there ain’t no LB worth 5 points in my opinion. I dunno, maybe there was some other info behind all the late money that was dumped on Northwestern, because the Wildcats did, in fact, cover and cost me. And there were several scenarios late in the game where I could have gotten the win or, at the very least, a push. I didn’t notice anything suspicious about the game itself, though. I didn’t give the Wildcats enough credit, but it’s apparent that Northwestern has at least improved to its usual “middle to upper level of the pack” status. I was critical of Iowa’s play calling going in, but really, I didn’t have any complaints about Iowa’s offensive game plan in this game. The Northwestern coaches just had one that was a bit better, especially in the second half. Maybe Iowa could have tried to throw deep more often, as QB Nathan Stanley finally connected on a deep ball in the first half, and also completed another making him two for two on the long ones. But really, given the fact that Stanley was 0 forever on the long pass coming into the game, there really wasn’t an opportunity to take the risk of an incompletion in such a tight game. Both defenses played well, both QBs are about as I described in my prediction write-up… ok, but not great. Although I can’t say that either wilted in the clutch. I feel Stanley could be a bit more discerning with his checkdowns – I get that he’s taught to check down to the back after goes through his progression, but that doesn’t do much good on third and long. Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson was sporadic as usual, but also threw some nice passes. Iowa had a 7-0 lead going into the half, but the difference in this game was that the Northwestern coaching staff made some second half adjustments that the Iowa coaching staff couldn’t overcome.

THE NON-PLAYS

Minnesota 24  Illinois 17

Closing Line: Minnesota -13.5

FTC Prediction: Minnesota 33 Illinois 17

My ATS Pick: Pass

The Illinois defense performed better than I expected. Or, I guess I could say the Minnesota offense performed worse than I expected. The Gophers new QB poses a threat as a runner and has a good arm, but is struggling a bit in the passing game. The Gophers defense seemed a bit flat as well, but played well enough to win. Illinois introduced a new dual threat QB and rotated him with starter Jeff George Jr. The results were good, I think. This was the best I’ve seen Illinois play in a while. I’m downgrading Minnesota after this one.

Wisconsin 38  Maryland 13

Closing Line: Wisconsin -24

FTC Prediction: Wisconsin 38 Maryland 17

My ATS Pick: Pass

This game went pretty much as I predicted. Wisconsin is steadily plodding along. Seems like the same play with the same great results every time they hand the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Alex Hornibrook has some weaknesses, but for the most part is playing great, and the defense is playing lights out. Maryland was just outmatched in this one.

Penn St. 42  Michigan 13

Closing Line: Penn St. -7.5

FTC Prediction: Penn St. 20 Michigan 12

My ATS Pick: Pass

Michigan’s offense and QB John O’Korn actually didn’t play all that bad in this one when compared to the previous two outings. Penn St. is just on a roll. The Nittany Lions continue to improve and are hitting their stride right at the perfect time as they work through three successive games against ranked opponents. I like to judge a QB’s heart by how he acts when he throws an interception. Some QB’s just lie on the ground after being hit or just walk towards the sideline. Others are like a dog chasing a bus— pretending they actually want to catch it. And the ones who have heart, the ones I would want on my team, do what Penn St. QB Trace McSorley did when he threw an early sideline interception when the game was still in doubt: The second he saw the ball was intercepted, he hauled ass and made the tackle. No pick-six here. The kid’s a winner.

Rutgers 14  Purdue 12

Closing Line: Purdue -9.5

FTC Prediction: Purdue 27 Rutgers 12

My ATS Pick: Pass

I alluded to a close game or possibly an upset in my prediction write up, but couldn’t bring myself to handicap it quite that close. Purdue was flat, I think, but what a great win for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights’ O-Line was blowing the Purdue defenders off the line on several occasions. Purdue did a lot of the things a team does when overlooking an opponent; dropped passes, mental mistakes, etc. And, like most favored teams in that circumstance, woke up and made a run at the end. HC Jeff Brohm seems to want to go with Elijah Sindelar at QB, but it was David Blough who led the team to its only TD with seconds remaining in the game, putting the Boilermakers in a position to send the game into overtime.

Michigan St. 17  Indiana 9

Closing Line: Michigan St. -6.5

FTC Prediction: Michigan St. 24 Indiana 17

My ATS Pick: Pass

In the standings, these two teams represent the opposite ends of the spectrum. Michigan St. has now won all four conference games while Indiana has lost all four of theirs. But this was an evenly matched game. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey is coming around and seems to have the “it” factor that I always refer to when analyzing QB’s. Indiana played a bit better defense than I expected and consequently the score came in even lower than I predicted. Michigan St. still isn’t putting up many points on offense. Some improvement in QB Brian Lewerke’s throwing accuracy would be what is most needed, I think.

Previous posts:

Predictions Week 8