BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 9

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are seven games to look at this week, and it appears as though only one has the potential to be a play. Some good matchups, though, so it should be an entertaining Saturday regardless.

My current record: 4-7

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
ILLINOIS	0	10	10	10
WISCONSIN	10	20	27	34

Illinois gave Minnesota a good game last Saturday and added a wrinkle with a dual-threat QB rotating in and out with starter Jeff George Jr. The Illini appeared to take a step forward. But that having been said, Wisconsin should win this game easily. During crunch time with the game on the line, Minnesota marched down the field for a score using basically the same running play. Illinois just doesn’t have the depth or the horses to stop a good running game for four quarters. And Wisconsin has a good running game. The Badgers appear to be a contender for the conference championship—they’ve been that good so far- and Illinois appears to be the bottom of the conference. So really, it’s just a matter of how much Wisconsin wants to win by. I’d guess, given the competition, that Wisconsin might come in a little flat, and also may want to experiment or work on some weaknesses when they build a bit of a cushion. And they never seem to blow anybody out or run up the score, so I’m not going overboard with the margin of victory.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 27 points. I would need at least 31 points to take Illinois, so I’ll most likely pass on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN	10	13	20	27
RUTGERS	0	3	10	10

Michigan just lost their shot at a championship last Saturday in convincing fashion. Now comes Rutgers. I’m sure the coaching staff will be pushing the players in practice to get better, and will be emphasizing the need to do so, but I still gotta think the players will have a hard time getting fired up for Rutgers, who has essentially been a doormat since they joined the conference. So I’m taking a few points off under the assumption that the Wolverines will be a bit flat. Rutgers, on the other hand, is coming off of back to back conference wins and is feeling pretty good about themselves. They’ll be coming in with some confidence, although I wonder how much the players will believe in the idea that they could actually win this game. I look for Michigan to jump out to an early two score lead and basically maintain it through most of the game with a defense that should be able to keep the Rutgers offense in check, and an offense that has been struggling but took a baby step forward last Saturday and probably will take another in this game.

As of now, Michigan is favored by 23 points. I would need 24 or more points to play Rutgers. The line has been flirting with that number all week, so it’s very possible this game will be a play, but I’ll have to wait until Saturday to see if I get the points I need.

	1	2	3	Final
OHIO ST	7	14	24	31
PENN ST	3	10	17	24

This could be the most important conference game of the season. Both defenses are playing great, and probably will play great in this game. But I think we’ll see some offense in this one. Great timing for this game, as I think both teams are hitting their stride, at their peak, or however you want to put it. The best game of the season so far for both teams was their last game, I think. This is a tough one to call. I think it will be a great game, both teams are loaded. Penn St. probably has a few more “superstars”, but I think Ohio St. might have just a smidge more overall talent top to bottom. And I like what I saw in Ohio St.’s offense last time out. OC Kevin Wilson’s system is starting to take hold, and I’m a big fan of Wilson’s offense. While Wilson wasn’t all that effective as a HC at Indiana, his offense could score on most any team…with Indiana’s talent. Now he has Ohio St.’s talent to work with. One thing that I can’t discount though, is Penn St. QB Trace McSorley. The kid is a winner. Penn St. will play well,-I foresee good things from RB Saquon Barkley and TE Mike Gesicki- but it’s McSorley that could win the game if he has a chance in the closing moments. But on the flip side, Ohio St. QB J.T. Barret ain’t too bad in the clutch either. I’m going to consider the QBs as cancelling each other out, give a slight overall talent edge to Ohio St., consider the home field advantage, and go with the Buckeyes in this one.

As of now, Ohio St. is favored by 6.5 points, which is almost exactly how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MARYLAND	7	17	24	31
INDIANA	7	13	20	33

I like this matchup. Tough one to call. Indiana is looking for their first conference win, but all of their losses have come against what appears to be four of the top five teams in the conference. This is a legitimate shot to get a win. But it’s not a slam dunk. Maryland has some playmakers on offense that I think will find the end zone against a decent Indiana defense. Indiana inserted a new and improving QB a few games back who I think will lead his team to the end zone against a mediocre to below average Maryland defense. This could go either way, particularly since the game is at Maryland, but I like Indiana because they’ve been competitive against good competition, and for the most part, has been consistent. Can’t say the same for Maryland, they’ve been up and down from week to week. I’ve also notice the Maryland players tend to give up when things start going against them. I’m going to give the “heart” factor to the Hoosiers and figure they come out with a hard fought road win.

As of now, Indiana is favored by 4.5 points, and I’d need 9 points to play Maryland, so I’ll most likely be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NORTHWEST'RN	3	6	12	12
MICHIGAN ST	3	3	10	13

Another good matchup. Northwestern is coming off a nice win last Saturday, confirming that the Wildcats are officially over their slow start and are beginning to live up to preseason expectations. Michigan St. is exceeding preseason expectations, thus flying under the radar despite being tied for first with a perfect conference record. My prediction pretty much reflects what I expect from Michigan St. Good enough defense to hold Northwestern to all field goals, and an average offense that will need a defense good enough to hold Northwestern to all field goals. As I’ve stated before, I think Northwestern QB Clayton Thorson is talented enough to make some great plays throughout the game, but I don’t trust him in clutch situations. Although I wouldn’t give an edge to Michigan St. in the QB department. Brian Lewerke struggles in the passing game. But I do give a bit of an edge to Michigan St. HC Mark Dantonio over Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald.

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 2.5 points, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
IOWA	7	13	20	23
MINNESOTA	0	7	10	13

Iowa burned me last Saturday but that’s not going to stop me from predicting a Hawkeye victory in this game. Mostly because I’m having my doubts about Minnesota. The new QB seems to be struggling in the passing game and the Gophers haven’t won the games against what appear to be “matchup” opponents. Not that Iowa has won many conference games, but the competition has been a bit tougher. Both teams have only one conference win; against Illinois. Iowa wore out the Illini and won by almost 30 points. A couple of weeks later, Minnesota had to score in the closing moments against the Illini to break a tie and win the game, so the common opponent factor goes to Iowa. The game is at Iowa, and Kinnick Stadium is tough on opponents, so there’s another edge for the Hawkeyes. I’m predicting at least one long score from Iowa RB Akeem Wadley, although the same type of prediction didn’t work out for me last Saturday, and I’m also figuring a couple of interceptions from a pretty good Iowa defense. I’m not completely sold on Iowa’s QB, but am going to figure him to not make any game changing mistakes, but that’s not entirely out of the question. I don’t really give an edge to either coaching staff. The jury’s still out as far as I’m concerned on new Minnesota HC P.J. Fleck. I feel the same way about Iowa’s new OC. And it seems that HC Kirk Ferentz has accepted his program’s status as an annual mid to upper level team in the conference. Lose a game to Northwestern? Ah, no biggie. We’ll get ‘em next week. In this case, I’m predicting they will get ‘em next week.

As of now, Iowa is favored by 7 points. Unless that number gets down to 3 points or less, in which case I’d take Iowa, I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
PURDUE	7	20	20	30
NEBRASKA	7	7	17	24

Purdue HC Jeff Brohm hit the nail on the head after his team lost to Rutgers last Saturday.  The Boilermakers took “two steps back”.  You could almost see it coming, though. Purdue’s season prior to last Saturday could be considered successful, but only if you put it in the context of where the program has been the last five or six seasons. Aside from the Rutgers game, Purdue has won against mid-level opponents and has made a strong showing against the upper level opponents. They still lost to the upper level opponents, but it hasn’t been the blowouts we’ve come to expect in a game such as Purdue vs. Wisconsin or Michigan. And, like a team that’s on the rise but has yet to learn how to win like an upper level program, I believe the players figured they’d easily handle Rutgers if they can go toe-to-toe with a team like Wisconsin. So I’m going to give Purdue a mulligan and assume the Boilermakers came in flat/overconfident against Rutgers. But there are some things to be concerned about. Purdue is struggling on offense and has found their way into the end zone only once in the last two games. I’ve documented in previous posts that I prefer David Blough over the current starting QB, Elijah Sindelar. And it was Blough in relief duty who led the Boilermakers to the aforementioned only TD in a last minute drive to give the Boilermakers a chance to send the game into overtime last Saturday.  Both are prone to mistakes, but I feel that Blough plays with a bit more moxie, with more thought about what is needed to get the first down as opposed to Sindelar, who seems a bit more robotic and focused on what he’s been taught to do as opposed what’s needed at the time. While checking down to a RB in the flat may be the plan if nobody’s open down field, it doesn’t usually yield good results on third and long. So I hope to see more of Blough, but hey, what do I know? I’m not going to pretend like my vantage point from the couch is better that Brohm’s. He’s obviously a good coach, I’m sure he knows what he’s doing. I think after the disappointing loss, he’ll have his team’s attention and I also think that the scoring drought will end in this game. I attribute a lot of that to the opponent. While the Purdue program is on the rise, the Nebraska program is heading in the opposite direction, although the Huskers have shown some improvement from the beginning of the season, mostly because QB Tanner Lee hasn’t been throwing as many interceptions. Lee has a good arm and throws a nice ball when he’s on target, but I figure him for a couple of interceptions in this game against a decent Purdue defense. I give a big edge to the Purdue coaching staff, but I still think there’re a few more lessons to be learned for this team, so I’m hesitant to call for a large margin of victory, even though Nebraska is woeful. I figure Purdue to jump out to an early lead, relinquish it in the second half, but close out the scoring with a TD and an insurance FG to get the win.

As of now, Purdue is favored by 4.5 points, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 8

What Happened Week 7