BIG TEN FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS WEEK 8

I’ll be making predictions on all conference games and using them for the purpose of trying to select winners vs. the Vegas point spread. There are six games to look at this week. It doesn’t appear as though any of this week’s will a play, though. Maybe one.

My current record: 4-6 

As is the case with most folks who don’t live in Vegas, I won’t know the point spread that’s available to me until game day, which will essentially be the closing line. So I’ll have to wait until then to see if I get the number I need to make a play (wager). At the bottom of my write-ups, I submit the number I’ll need to make a play, and how that number compares to the current line.

	1	2	3	Final
RUTGERS	3	13	13	16
PURDUE	7	14	17	27

Considering where the program was last season, and the level of competition they’ve faced this season, Purdue has made a pretty good showing for themselves so far. I have to think the Boilermakers may be a bit flat for this game. After hanging tough with the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin, Rutgers has to look like a soft spot on the schedule. Of course, Purdue has not yet reached a point where they can take any team lightly, but most all college teams have a down week at some point. I think Purdue is the better team and still think they will win. But this game could turn out to be a good battle, considering the game is at Rutgers. Rutgers is coming off a nice win at Illinois, and while I don’t think they should be favored in any of their remaining games, I do believe this is an improved Rutgers team when compared to last season’s version. I figure Rutgers to be the more inspired team and to hang tough throughout, but I don’t figure Rutgers to be the better team in the end.

As of now, Purdue is favored by 9.5, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
WISCONSIN	17	24	31	38
MARYLAND	0	10	10	17

Maryland is coming off of a couple of deflating losses and is now far removed from the lofty status attained after upsetting Texas in the opener. Now they have to head into Camp Randall. I don’t think Maryland is ready to cash it in for the remainder of the season – college teams go through up and down periods throughout the season – but they might just be at a low point currently. I’ve notice that when things don’t go so well for the Terps, they tend to give up. It’s noticeable not only in their play, but also in the body language. I don’t figure things to go so well for Maryland in this one. Wisconsin has some things to work on, they turned the ball over a few times in a “closer than it should have been” game against Purdue last Saturday. And they still need to show that QB Alex Hornibrook can be a threat to throw the deep ball. I figure HC Paul Chryst will have his team focused at least for the first half. And Maryland certainly has the type of athletes to be wary of, so it shouldn’t be too much of a task to get his defense fired up. Wisconsin hardly ever blows anybody out, so I have to be careful with the margin of victory here, but again, this Maryland team could just tank the second half if they fall behind early. And I think they’ll fall behind early.

As of now, Wisconsin is favored by 24.5, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
MICHIGAN ST	0	14	21	24
INDIANA	0	7	10	17

Michigan St. has been playing good defense and just average on offense. I expect the Spartans to hold Indiana to a fairly low number and score just enough to win the game. Indiana showed they can hang with the big boys when they took Michigan into overtime last Saturday, although Michigan is really struggling on offense right now. Freshman QB Peyton Ramsey held up well in his first start against quality competition, so no issues there… at least not so far. Indiana is hungry for their first conference win, and they’re playing well enough to have earned one by now, but the schedule has been brutal. And this game doesn’t offer any relief. It’ not out of the question for Indiana to win this game, but I’m giving the edge to Michigan St. The Spartans are at home, they’re playing better defense, and have the better QB at the moment. And probably the better coach, although Indiana coach Tom Allen seems to have this program moving in the right direction. But what kind of effect are these close losses going to have on morale?

As of now, Michigan St. is favored by 6.5, which is almost exactly how I see it. Pass.

	1	2	3	Final
MINNESOTA	3	20	27	33
ILLINOIS	0	7	10	17

Illinois lost in the toilet bowl last Saturday, earning them the distinction of probably the worst team in the conference. But, relatively speaking, they ain’t all that bad for a team that’s at the bottom of a conference. The Illini won’t be favored in any of their remaining games, but they are capable of pulling off an upset. I’m not counting on it here though. Minnesota is looking for its first conference win as well, and I also think they’re the more talented team. The Gophers made a QB change last Saturday and rallied late in the game to make the score close, but the game itself wasn’t all that close. I think the rally was important in that it offered hope, because the season appeared to be slipping away from the Gophers and I’m guessing Minnesota fans are starting to wonder if new HC P.J. Fleck is the second coming of former HC Tim Brewster. A lot of rah-rah hype, but not much results. It’s too early in his campaign for Fleck’s job to be in any type of jeopardy, but I get the sense that this is a must win for Minnesota. I believe they’ll get it.

As of now, Minnesota is favored by 13.5, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
NORTHWEST'RN	3	17	17	24
IOWA	7	14	28	31

Who knows with these two teams? They’ve been the two most unpredictable over the years. Both have coaches who have been around awhile, most likely because they’re too good to fire, but not good enough for any other school to try to lure them away. All I can go on is what I’ve seen so far, so here goes. Iowa looked much better against common opponent Penn St. than did Northwestern. But Northwestern is beginning to recover from its annual slow start. Northwestern’s Clayton Thorson will be the most talented QB on the field, but Thorson is prone to making mistakes, particularly in crucial situations. Iowa’s Nathan Stanley isn’t much better, though, and has yet to complete a long pass that I can remember. The game is at Northwestern. Both have a RB with all conference potential, but I’d say Iowa’s Akrum Wadley is the better of the two. In fact, Wadley could be the difference maker in this game. But that’s making the assumption that Iowa will give him the ball often enough to make a difference, ideally on first down. But with Iowa, that’s a bold assumption. Judging by the Hawkeyes last outing, they’re more likely to call for Stanley to throw an incomplete pass on first down. So there’s all the pros and cons. Looks to be a pretty good matchup. I’m going with Iowa, mostly because of the “pros” I mentioned for the Hawkeyes (you can throw in Josey Jewell as well), and the “cons” I mentioned for Northwestern.

As of now, Iowa is favored by 2. It doesn’t seem very likely, but if the line should change to a pick ‘em, or if Northwestern is favored, I’ll be taking Iowa. Otherwise I’ll be passing on this one.

	1	2	3	Final
PENN ST	7	10	17	20
MICHIGAN	0	6	12	12

Marquee matchup, here. Penn St. looked good the last time out, best I’ve seen them play. In fact, they’ve looked pretty good all season. But they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s, though, so I expect some tougher sledding for the Penn St. offense. But I also expect they’ll get plenty of chances because Michigan’s offense is struggling badly right now, mostly because of poor play at the QB position. I’m sure HC Jim Harbaugh and his staff is addressing the situation, and if anyone can improve a QB quickly, it’s Harbaugh. I’m looking for a hard fought, entertaining game, but at this point in time, I’m going with Penn St. Beaver Stadium can really get cranked up for a big night game, particularly if the Nittany Lions are playing well. There’s also a revenge factor for last season’s blowout loss to Michigan, although that may not matter much on the field once the game starts. And Penn St.’s defense ain’t too shabby, either. QB Trace McSorley is a winner, and I’m also giving a certain amount of weight to the fact that Penn St. fared better against common opponent Indiana.

As of now, Penn St. is favored by 9.5, which is close to how I see it so I’ll be passing on this one. 

My method is to begin making my predictions for the upcoming week on Sunday while Saturday’s games are still fresh in my mind. I don’t look at the Vegas point spreads until I’m done handicapping all of the games. If the point spread that I predict for a particular game differs from the closing line by seven or more points, I consider it a “play”,—i.e. a game that I would wager on. If the difference is less than seven points, I back off. I’ll also back off if a report comes out during the week (after I’ve already handicapped the game)  that there is an issue involving the starting quarterback (an injury I did not know about) or the head coach (health issues, scandal, etc.).

Previous posts:

What Happened Week 7

What Happened Week 6